Skill and Chance
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« on: June 21, 2023, 08:23:14 AM » |
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« edited: June 21, 2023, 11:02:48 AM by Skill and Chance »
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1. Republicans gained a bunch of secular voters and Democrats gained a bunch of more religious voters, clearly including some Mormons. Abortion has probably long since faded away into a state/local issue. Republicans accept gay rights much more clearly/decisively now and are very protectionist on trade. Republicans won 30 states and Democrats only 20. If this was the outcome of a close election and not a significant Republican PV win, this Dem coalition is unsustainable unless they have a large Blue Dog style crossover caucus in the Senate.
2. Tech is still decisively Dem leaning. WFH techies have taken over significant parts of Idaho and Alaska like the railroads took over various interior west states in the 19th century.
3. Kansas is now known for abortion to almost the same degree Nevada is known for gambling. Having been the only state in the region where abortion remained legal into the long run, it became a very significant part of the economy.
4. The black vote stayed near-unanimously Democratic
5. It would appear that the non-college white vote is now something like 65R/35D everywhere. The Hispanic vote also appears to be mildly R-leaning (but only mildly, given AZ and TX). This flipped NV and all the parts of the Northeast that aren't majority college grads by this time. However, this also means that non-college white voters in the rural South/Plains are no longer near unanimous R in this generation, which is how Texas and the Carolinas finally flipped. This is the hard part, and IDK exactly how it happened, but Dems somehow gained with rural Southern white voters while maintaining almost all of their support with Southern black voters. Perhaps the military/veteran vote is now Dem-leaning?
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