Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election. Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible.
Almost surely improvement, probably but not certainly not enough to do anything statewide. The anti-Trump conservatives are very concentrated in VA-10. It went from Romney +1 to Clinton +10 to Biden +20 to McAuliffe +5 in 2021 to Dem +6.5 for Congress in 2022. The last result suggests it's more likely 2020 was a one-time thing there than 2021. However, the Richmond suburbs are more monotonically moving left which cancels this out somewhat.
