Is Virginia still worth trying in for the GOP or is it a lost cause?

[Ragnaroni]

We can all agree Colorado is gone for good, Nevada is a perpetual swing state these days, New Mexico seems irrelevant (and unwinnable too) and Arizona is a battleground state but what about Virginia? It voted 54% for Biden a 10 point margin but I feel it's still winnable for the Republicans somehow.
I forgot to mention Youngkin's 2 point margin of victory which was a 14 point swing IIRC.
Dicuss

[Skill and Chance]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible. 

[Ragnaroni]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible. 

Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.

[Skill and Chance]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible. 

Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.

Almost surely improvement, probably but not certainly not enough to do anything statewide.  The anti-Trump conservatives are very concentrated in VA-10.  It went from Romney +1 to Clinton +10 to Biden +20 to McAuliffe +5 in 2021 to Dem +6.5 for Congress in 2022.  The last result suggests it's more likely 2020 was a one-time thing there than 2021.  However, the Richmond suburbs are more monotonically moving left which cancels this out somewhat.

[Ragnaroni]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible. 

Do you assume that there will be some improvement or worsening statewide for the GOP in a non-Trump election? I lean towards the former.

Almost surely improvement, probably but not certainly not enough to do anything statewide.  The anti-Trump conservatives are very concentrated in VA-10.  It went from Romney +1 to Clinton +10 to Biden +20 to McAuliffe +5 in 2021 to Dem +6.5 for Congress in 2022.  The last result suggests it's more likely 2020 was a one-time thing there than 2021.  However, the Richmond suburbs are more monotonically moving left which cancels this out somewhat.

I see, so not running Trump in 2024 would be a wise move in some way. I know there are many states that have the same situation as the anti-Trump GOP guys in VA.

[Ferguson97]

No. Not because it's a lost cause, but because if they're winning Virginia, they've already surpassed 300 electoral votes anyway.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Virginia has been a lost cause since 2008. Northern VA wields too much political power in the state for the GOP to win there in a presidential election.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Virginia has been a lost cause since 2008. Northern VA wields too much political power in the state for the GOP to win there in a presidential election.

Romney almost certainly wins VA in 2012 if he got 270+ EV

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Rs can technically win Virginia on paper, but its one of those situations where you ask yourself is it worth spending millions of dollars when there are much easier states to secure the 270 electoral votes. Another thing is I feel conservatives do is write the state off because of NOVA. Yes, its not good for them, but before we can even talk about NOVA there has been significant erosion downstate in both Virginia Beach and the Richmond area. If you cant find a way to improve your margins in those areas, NOVA is the least of your worries.

My (way too early) guess for 2024:
Biden vs Trump: Biden+8-9
Biden vs DeSantis: Biden+4-6

[TodayJunior]

Well…they are running out of paths to get to 270, so might as well throw a Hail Mary and see what sticks.

[jamestroll]

I know it is a CONTROVERSIAL opinion, but I do believe the similar swings from 2020 PRES to NJ and VA gov in 2021 ... it was a sheer co-incidence. There were absolutely local and state issues that caused Virginia. New Jersey came more unexpected.


and this...

I think Rs can technically win Virginia on paper, but its one of those situations where you ask yourself is it worth spending millions of dollars when there are much easier states to secure the 270 electoral votes. Another thing is I feel conservatives do is write the state off because of NOVA. Yes, its not good for them, but before we can even talk about NOVA there has been significant erosion downstate in both Virginia Beach and the Richmond area. If you cant find a way to improve your margins in those areas, NOVA is the least of your worries.

My (way too early) guess for 2024:
Biden vs Trump: Biden+8-9
Biden vs DeSantis: Biden+4-6

^^^^^

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Rs can technically win Virginia on paper, but its one of those situations where you ask yourself is it worth spending millions of dollars when there are much easier states to secure the 270 electoral votes. Another thing is I feel conservatives do is write the state off because of NOVA. Yes, its not good for them, but before we can even talk about NOVA there has been significant erosion downstate in both Virginia Beach and the Richmond area. If you cant find a way to improve your margins in those areas, NOVA is the least of your worries.

My (way too early) guess for 2024:
Biden vs Trump: Biden+8-9
Biden vs DeSantis: Biden+4-6

That’s still a swing rightward from 2020. Who will vote Trump that didn’t vote for him in 2020?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Their only chance is probably in gubernatorial elections, and even then only with the right candidate in the right circumstances.

It's possible that the state doesn't vote for Biden, or any other Democrat for President, by double digits again but it seems like it's going to have a stubborn mid-single digit floor for them going forward, at worst.

[Frodo]

Virginia is increasingly like Washington state in that Republican candidates are generally blown away at the national level, and are relegated to rural/exurban seats in House races, but still stand a fighting chance in statewide races.  Republicans are especially potent in the legislature where they may be in the minority more often than not, but are never far from winning one or both chambers in a good year.  

Let's put it this way -Virginia Republicans, for all their problems, are still better off (read: more competitive) than Florida Democrats will ever be.  

[jamestroll]

Desperately need non-Trump data for a federal election.  Until then, they should treat it as Lean D but impossible.  

There were of course anti-trump conservatives who voted for Biden in Virginia and 2021 Democrats got caught off guard when they could no longer count on those voters. But compare NoVa results in 2021 to any election prior to 2016.. there has been a major shift.

Virginia being "safe d" was always hype. But fortunately for them, Democrats will keep it from being a swing state with their improvements in Richmond and Hampton Road.  But there is no 2014 or 2012 Nova margins for Democrats for the foreseeable future either.

To put in perspective: Virginia was one of the relatively states in which Democrats won the house popular vote in 2022 in a GOP leaning year. That was with strong GOP campaigns in VA-10 and VA-07 and VA-02 flipping.

[Pericles]

It's significantly to the left of the nation and demographically unfriendly to Republicans, so it's not worth focusing on when the rule is to keep your eyes on the prize and get to 270 and 51 Senate seats.

[here2view]

It's not worth it considering that winning it in 2024 or beyond isn't part of the Republicans easiest path to 270:

Trump 2020 [235]
Wisconsin [245]
Nevada [251]
Georgia [267]
Arizona [278]
Pennsylvania [297]
Michigan [312]
NE-02 [313]
Maine [315]
New Hampshire [319]
Minnesota [329]
New Mexico [334]
Virginia [347]

[David Hume]

No. Not because it's a lost cause, but because if they're winning Virginia, they've already surpassed 300 electoral votes anyway.

It may worth it when there are open senate seats and they have strong candidates like Youngkin.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's a lost cause

[Agonized-Statism]

Whether or not it's still winnable, there are easier paths to the presidency. Fewer than before, but paths nevertheless.

[MABA 2020]

On a presidential level it's not worth it, but obviously Youngkin shows there is still some potential success to be had in the state.

[pbrower2a]

Thirteen electoral votes are worth the effort as other ways of winning close off.