My guess is that turnout will decline over the next several cycles, for "regression to the mean" reasons if nothing else (2020 had the highest turnout since 1900), so it might take a while. Contrary to pbrower, I wouldn't be surprised if 2024 is a comfortable victory for one side or the other but the winner still receives fewer raw votes than Biden '20.
Basically agree with this. A lot of people in 2020 were very angry about the government either not being able to fix COVID or going overboard trying to fix it. Many others were simply bored out of their minds. Several states mailed everyone a ballot as a one-time thing. I think it will be difficult to replicate that for the foreseeable future. Also, note 2022 turnout was somewhat down from 2018.
Poll
