AZ-SEN 2024: Away we Gallego (3/5 - Sinema OUT)

[Skill and Chance]

I have no idea why Schumer would let her keep her committee assignments. She's a consistent problem for him and this latest stunt will do little to endear her to him. We still have the majority without her, so who cares?

You let her keep his assignments as long as she still caucuses with you, because if she caucuses with you that means you control every single committee and can finally start moving nominations forward without relying on discharge petitions.

In addition to the discharge petition issue, there's also the fact that you can lose control of a 50/50 senate at any time if the wrong person gets sick.  If she's willing to stay with you on organizational votes and support most of your nominees (no indication she won't), better to stay in her good graces than to send her to the Republicans.  

[Skill and Chance]

If Republicans did manage to court her for 2024, it has the potential to be a huge PR coup for the party.  They could use her to blunt pretty much every Dem attack based on pre-2015 social issues. 

[Skill and Chance]

If Republicans did manage to court her for 2024, it has the potential to be a huge PR coup for the party.  They could use her to blunt pretty much every Dem attack based on pre-2015 social issues. 

Yyyyeah...not really. Democrats see right through her and she would be completely unpalatable to the Arizona GOP base.

IDK, they desperately need to thread the needle with the ~25% of Republicans who are at least somewhat pro-choice and the ~50% who are pro-gay marriage (both of which are higher among major donors than among R voters in general) while also saying "let the South be as Baptist as it wants to be because federalism."  "I'm bisexual and pro-choice, but the left still went too far for me" would be the ideal message to make that happen, particularly in a Western swing state.       

[Skill and Chance]

Random thought: any chance Schumer talks Manchin into dismantling the filibuster now that Manchin's career is functionally over?

Why on earth would he push for that when Dems have already lost the House and are staring down the Class I Senate map in 2024?  Can you say Federal Abortion Ban Act of 2025?

[Skill and Chance]

The Arizona House has just voted to repeal the 1864 abortion ban.  This still needs to be passed by the Senate (which is likely) and signed by Gov. Hobbs (which is certain).

Should this law be repealed, what will replace it?

If the 1864 law is repealed, my understanding is the 15 week limit passed in 2022 would go into effect.