When will Texas turn blue

[Skill and Chance]

2028 is plausible only if a Republican wins 2024 and completely sh*ts the bed for four years. Otherwise, 2032 or 2036 is more likely.

This. I can see Texas being the Colorado of the early 2000s, the state that Democrats target and keep losing, but eventually something gives.

Colorado's a totally different beast.  Dems won  the governorship every time from 1974 to 1994 and they managed to take a one-seat majority in the state senate in the 2000 election, which deadlocked redistricting and set them up really well for the late 2000's Dem waves.

[Skill and Chance]

Anyway I don’t think Texas will turn blue but I sort of think it will be where FL was from 96-16 where it’s a Republican tilting battleground state but democrats win it in good years for them .

I could see this.  I think it will consistently disappoint statewide, but Dems have an EC style natural advantage in the legislature.  They are likely going to control the lower house in any election  where the average statewide Republican margin falls below 4ish.  That makes it categorically different from Florida 1996-2016 because at some point Dems would have a say in the state government.

[Skill and Chance]

TBH I'm not sure it ever will.  It has tightened, but it's not that close to the national median yet and Republicans seem to be doing a fine job "backfilling" their lost voters through attracting conservatives from other states and the Hispanic working class trend.  It's gotten close enough that Dems should eventually win the lower house of the legislature on the geographic bias, and perhaps a couple statewide offices in wave years, but that looks like their ceiling for now.

[Skill and Chance]

TBH I'm not sure it ever will.  It has tightened, but it's not that close to the national median yet and Republicans seem to be doing a fine job "backfilling" their lost voters through attracting conservatives from other states and the Hispanic working class trend.  It's gotten close enough that Dems should eventually win the lower house of the legislature on the geographic bias, and perhaps a couple statewide offices in wave years, but that looks like their ceiling for now.

You mean the Democrats will come back some, but not enough to change the policy of that state.

Well, I think they will get close enough to scare the libertarians (generally the dominant block in the TX R coalition) into telling the hardline social conservatives off before they lose control.  For example, I doubt the total abortion ban will stick for long (at the very least, more exceptions will be added).  They will also have people like Musk increasingly calling the shots behind the scenes. 

[Skill and Chance]

They are still swinging red in terms of how much they net the GOP and also I cited the trends and really the way it’s going right now shows a purple Texas in the 2030s not a blue one .

TX other than 2012 to 2016 has not had a cycle where it has trended massively blue which shows growth isn’t actually pushing it as Dem as you think .

Most of the exurbs of the Texas Triangle are trending Dem too, they still vote GOP overall but over time it's becoming less and less.  Even a lot of the Houston exurbs are trending D overall.

Only the Dallas area movement and maybe parts of Austin/College Station are enough to matter, though.