2022 Primary Election Night Coverage Megathread (9/13 - GRAND FINALE - DE, NH, RI)

[Skill and Chance]

Pillen now improving at a faster rate than Herbster. It's going to be closer, but I think it's going to be Pillen.

Yes, I think Pillen is narrowly favored.  Doing just well enough in the rurals so far.  Lindstrom probably ends up in 3rd now that Omaha is tapped out.

[Skill and Chance]

Some Herbster gains from flipping Omaha suburbs counties from Lindstrom.  Pillen's reasonably populated home base of Platte still 85% out.

[Skill and Chance]

Herbster did get quite close at the end. Wow.

Edit: Note Pillen's home county still 85% out, more outstanding than anywhere else in the state.

[Skill and Chance]

So, trump nearly pulled a scandal ridden candidate over the line.. and obliterated a long-term stalwart of WV politics in his own turf.

Yet, this is supposedly a sign of his waning influence.

I mean, the sign of his waning influence is probably going to be the absolute walloping that his endorsed candidate will receive in two weeks in Georgia.

At this point, Trump probably hates Georgia more than most blue states lol.  Ls after Ls.

Given Raffensperger is DOA against Hice, and Duncan abandoned his race early on.. I'm not sure the survival of a relatively popular gov such as Kemp is going to mean much.

The governor (not SOS) decides state level EC disputes under the Electoral Count Act

[Skill and Chance]

It's remarkable how much of a consistent pattern it is that the Trumpiest vote comes in on election day after the more establishment early/mail-in vote, even in Republican primaries. You would've thought Herbster was underperforming to an extreme extent with the first returns, but he ended up getting close. Same with Mooney in WV-02, who slightly trailed in early returns but won easily.

Why do you think this is, EG?

Perhaps the Trump endorsement motivates typically non-voters to get out and vote? 

That to a lesser extent, but mostly the long-term effects of 2020 skepticism of non-election day voting, which always came from him against the wishes of the party establishment. It's something we need to keep in mind for the general elections in 2022 as well, we're probably going to see very Dem-skewed numbers early on in many races that count early vote first, just like 2020.

How much VBM was there in these primaries, though?  Probably not much?  Was it more in-person EV?

[Skill and Chance]

Am i really more right wing on this issue than the average Kansas Republican. Like I really am stunned on this

If this turnout is even somewhat reflective of 2020's partisan makeup, then it's safe to say that you are to the right of at least 40% of Trump voters in Kansas.

Kind of an eerie similarity to when a random person gets 30% or 40% of the Dem primary vote in Appalachian states.  Makes me wonder if Kansas is about to trend left pretty hard in GEs?

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

This sounds too strong.  The GE won't be a single issue abortion vote!  This could push it back to boring R-leaning year from R blowout, but the economy still matters.  I do have the senate as too close to call, but that's because they have 2 candidates in swing states who appear to be blowing it.

[Skill and Chance]

Obviously disappointed by the results of the referendum, but credit where credit is due — Democrats have actually made voters forget that we’re currently governed by Biden (his invisibility actually helps Democrats in this regard) and a Democratic trifecta and have masterfully created the perception that the actual incumbents are a conservative Supreme Court combined with Trump-endorsed radicals who are running for statewide/federal offices all over the country.

Nice job, and one of the very, very few strategies which might actually allow you to defy much of the traditional midterm penalty. Unless something changes, it looks like this will be a neutral/-ish election at best for Republicans — a (massive) Republican wave is basically out of the question at this point, and an embarrassing Republican underperformance (of the fundamentals) even in the event that they win the Senate/House seems likely. The House probably still flips by a very underwhelming margin, but the Senate is somewhat of an uphill battle for the GOP.

This sounds too strong.  The GE won't be a single issue abortion vote!  This could push it back to boring R-leaning year from R blowout, but the economy still matters.  I do have the senate as too close to call, but that's because they have 2 candidates in swing states who appear to be blowing it.

Though MI Republicans really could be in trouble given this issue is on the ballot

True, and Tudor Dixon spoke in favor of a total ban without sexual assault exceptions.  That's going to be truly out of the mainstream in Michigan.

[Skill and Chance]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

If there was ever a situation where the day-of vote breaks 90% in favor of one candidate, it's this.  She has primed her supporters to believe their votes won't count otherwise.  

[Skill and Chance]

I'm kinda amazed at the lack of political geography in the Lake v Robson race with Robson pretty consistently leading Lake by 10% throughout the state.

This makes it very unlikely there's some area in Maricopa yet to come in where Lake will do suprisingly well.

Pima is the wildcard.

EDIT: Just came in with a big Robson lead.  Pending a near unanimous day-of vote for Lake, this could be over.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm kinda amazed at the lack of political geography in the Lake v Robson race with Robson pretty consistently leading Lake by 10% throughout the state.

This makes it very unlikely there's some area in Maricopa yet to come in where Lake will do suprisingly well.

Pima is the wildcard.

On NYT Pima is half in and Robson is doing just fine.

Just caught that.

[Skill and Chance]

Why isn't Kari Lake crashing on PredictIt? I highly doubt Pima County will bail her out.

If there was ever a situation where the day-of vote breaks 90% in favor of one candidate, it's this.  She has primed her supporters to believe their votes won't count otherwise.  

In fact, if the reported vote is all EV (do we know?) I’d go so far as to say Lake is favored.

I was under the impression we were getting only election day results in AZ, which means the opposite—Lake is doomed.

Any chance Lamon could actually win this or is the election-day vote really going to be overwhelmingly Masters? Seeing conflicting signs so far.

I'd expect the election-day vote to favor Masters for the same reasons as Lake, but are we looking at EV or ED?

Now understanding that this is the early vote, which bodes well for both Lake and Masters.

Masters is basically safe given he's leading in the early vote.  Robson could easily be leading by enough to hold off Lake, however.

[Skill and Chance]

The DCCC playing this game in legislative seats is relatively low-risk, high-reward. Playing it in gubernatorial races is high-risk, high-reward and should not be touched. If Mastriano wins in PA, for instance, that puts the integrity of the next election in jeopardy. Gibbs isn't going to have nearly that power.

Anyway, mixed bag of a night overall but I was glad to see some of the craziest candidates like Lake and Greitens go down, and I was personally pretty happy to see the repulsive Stephanie Gallardo finish third and be eliminated in her race.

Lake can still comeback, the remaining vote is probably very friendly for her.

Lake has already flipped a bunch of rural counties but Robson is holding up well in the cities.  Do we have a clear sense of how much is left?