Toobin says Supreme Court retirement "imminent"

[Skill and Chance]

Hot take: If true, it's not Breyer.

Yes.

If this is accurate, it's extremely likely to be Sotomayor given the recent news. 

Still think Breyer retires around Independence Day either way. 

[Skill and Chance]

Kamala Harris would honestly be a terrific pick.  She's a very bright and qualified person who's on the right side of almost every issue, but seems to have horrible political instincts and no real electoral constituency.  She's a little only the old side, but just barely.  And this would allow Biden to nominate a new VP with actual appeal to Latinos.

Dems would immediately lose their senate majority.  It requires a majority of both chambers to select a new VP after the vacancy, and there would be no one to break the tie in the senate.  Republicans would have a say in who the new VP is and they could even hold the VP seat open until 2025 if they wanted to.

[Skill and Chance]

Not buying this until there are more sources confirming the claim. Usually retirements happen at the end of SCOTUS terms.

I believe Breyer retiring later this year will be the only SCOTUS nomination Biden gets (confirmed) anyway. No matter whether he's serving 1 or 2 terms.

Stevens announced his retirement in early April and Souter privately notified the Obama admin in early April before announcing in early May.  Kennedy was the only end-of-term surprise in recent times.