Fabrizio Lee (R) Internal. WI: Trump+10, PA: Trump+6, MI - Trump+12, GA: Trump+3 AZ: Trump+8

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting that GA is by far Biden's best Trump 2016 state here.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

Well yeah that's just trends continuing, and I can see Biden winning the Sun Belt while losing a few Midwest states, but that's just a ludicrous difference.

IDK it always seemed like MI and WI were overdue to go Ohio on us.  PA likely won't though because of the significant culturally NE part.

AZ swinging back isn't crazy with the Hispanic trends elsewhere this year, but snapping all the back to 2008-12 strains belief.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

Well yeah that's just trends continuing, and I can see Biden winning the Sun Belt while losing a few Midwest states, but that's just a ludicrous difference.

IDK it always seemed like MI and WI were overdue to go Ohio on us.  PA likely won't though because of the significant culturally NE part.

AZ swinging back isn't crazy with the Hispanic trends elsewhere this year, but snapping all the back to 2008-12 strains belief.

If you move a lot of the undecideds toward Biden these numbers don’t strain belief. And it aligns with a D pres nom having a floor of around 45-47 percent in AZ now, which seems believable after always charting around 43-44 election after election.

So back to 2016, then?  I could see that.

This also highlights that Dems need to keep trying in NC.  If AZ isn't sticking and NV is shaky, they need something to counter it with.