Fabrizio Lee (R) Internal. WI: Trump+10, PA: Trump+6, MI - Trump+12, GA: Trump+3 AZ: Trump+8

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000017d-49fd-dddc-a77f-4dff81830000

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Let the slaughtering begin.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting that GA is by far Biden's best Trump 2016 state here.

[Bootes Void]

Interesting that GA is by far Biden's best Trump 2016 state here.

probably proves that the deep south is inelastic theory

[Ferguson97]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

[Ferguson97]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

Well yeah that's just trends continuing, and I can see Biden winning the Sun Belt while losing a few Midwest states, but that's just a ludicrous difference.

[MT Treasurer]

These are inflated, but I absolutely believe MI will be more winnable for Republicans than GA, both in 2022 and 2024 (and after that, of course).

[Xing]

If the election were held today, yeah, it would be brutal for Democrats, but Obama would've lost in late 2009 and Trump would've been crushed in late 2017 as well.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

Well yeah that's just trends continuing, and I can see Biden winning the Sun Belt while losing a few Midwest states, but that's just a ludicrous difference.

IDK it always seemed like MI and WI were overdue to go Ohio on us.  PA likely won't though because of the significant culturally NE part.

AZ swinging back isn't crazy with the Hispanic trends elsewhere this year, but snapping all the back to 2008-12 strains belief.

[xavier110]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

Well yeah that's just trends continuing, and I can see Biden winning the Sun Belt while losing a few Midwest states, but that's just a ludicrous difference.

IDK it always seemed like MI and WI were overdue to go Ohio on us.  PA likely won't though because of the significant culturally NE part.

AZ swinging back isn't crazy with the Hispanic trends elsewhere this year, but snapping all the back to 2008-12 strains belief.

If you move a lot of the undecideds toward Biden these numbers don’t strain belief. And it aligns with a D pres nom having a floor of around 45-47 percent in AZ now, which seems believable after always charting around 43-44 election after election.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

Well yeah that's just trends continuing, and I can see Biden winning the Sun Belt while losing a few Midwest states, but that's just a ludicrous difference.

IDK it always seemed like MI and WI were overdue to go Ohio on us.  PA likely won't though because of the significant culturally NE part.

AZ swinging back isn't crazy with the Hispanic trends elsewhere this year, but snapping all the back to 2008-12 strains belief.

If you move a lot of the undecideds toward Biden these numbers don’t strain belief. And it aligns with a D pres nom having a floor of around 45-47 percent in AZ now, which seems believable after always charting around 43-44 election after election.

So back to 2016, then?  I could see that.

This also highlights that Dems need to keep trying in NC.  If AZ isn't sticking and NV is shaky, they need something to counter it with.

[xavier110]

Trump PAC Internal

R+12 in Michigan but only R+3 in Georgia?

I'm open to the idea that Trump could win but these margins are completely inconsistent. Trash it.

I don't think there's be that much of a difference, but I can TOTALLY see a huge rightward swing in the midwest while Georgia swings left at the same time.

Well yeah that's just trends continuing, and I can see Biden winning the Sun Belt while losing a few Midwest states, but that's just a ludicrous difference.

IDK it always seemed like MI and WI were overdue to go Ohio on us.  PA likely won't though because of the significant culturally NE part.

AZ swinging back isn't crazy with the Hispanic trends elsewhere this year, but snapping all the back to 2008-12 strains belief.

If you move a lot of the undecideds toward Biden these numbers don’t strain belief. And it aligns with a D pres nom having a floor of around 45-47 percent in AZ now, which seems believable after always charting around 43-44 election after election.

So back to 2016, then?  I could see that.

This also highlights that Dems need to keep trying in NC.  If AZ isn't sticking and NV is shaky, they need something to counter it with.

Yes. I expect most statewide Ds to clear 45-46 in 2022. It will definitely expose D floor here.

Anyway, once the rubber hits the road in 24, I expect AZ to be quite close yet again. Trump uniquely horrifies a lot of Is/Rs here, as evident by his unfavorable ratings in this poll, where he rates worst among the 5 states

[President Johnson]

Internal poll, but Biden's standing definitely has declined and if the election was held today, he might actually lose. However, things can and probably will change again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah right these polls in swing states aren't happening

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vaccinated Bear is giddy over polls 1000 days from an Election

Hillary was leading Trump and she Lost

[Hollywood]

Vaccinated Bear is giddy over polls 1000 days from an Election

Hillary was leading Trump and she Lost

Hillary was leading Trump, Biden was supposed to win by greater margins, and Democrats were supposed to easily win in VA and NJ.  The problem is with the Democrat bias in polling data, and the experienced Ds and Rs on the forum saw the red tide coming in September.  The trick is looking at the internal data to gauge the importance of issues, the party that's winning the argument on those important issues, and the motivation or enthusiasm of voters (likelihood of voting).  If Democrats had actually took the Rasmussen polls seriously this summer, they would have easily won in Virginia by changing course on a couple of issues. 

So, it isn't the Republican pollsters that are trashy, but rather, the Democrat's trashy, bubble-boy analyses that's turned into complete rubbish.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden polls sux right now but we only need 278 MI, WI and PA, CO, NV and NH give us 265 and 1 from GA, AZ and VA gives us 278 and we don't need 413 and Blk, Brown and Females vote D we won 80 million votes in 2020

It's hard to imagine DS losing 279 and besides Trump is being investigated over insurrectionist commission as soon as he runs for Prez he's gonna get scrutinizef again

He wasn't all bad but he was friends with Russia I don't want to hear about Russia again, it's 1000 days til the campaign heats up for Prez

The state by state polls in Gov abd Sen are within the margin of error Trump isn't leading by 10 in any of these States

[Eraserhead]

lol.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Michigan will swing right in 2024 by an unexpected margin if Trump is on the ballot.