Skill and Chance
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« on: June 13, 2021, 10:36:19 AM » |
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Hmmm... on paper, the NPV margin would have to fall to D+1.5 or so for the House to flip. However, Bernie would have a better-distributed coalition and is one of the only Dem candidates who would have a chance in the EC with a 1.5% PV margin. Could this carry over to the House map? Maybe, but it might actually get worse even if the EC gap got better for Bernie. 2012, which was probably the most class-oriented election in the past 30 years, had the worse NPV vs. House seats gap of the era.
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