NH - Saint Anselm: Harris at 45% in Biden-free primary, 71% of Rs want Trump to play important role

[Skill and Chance]

Kamala very, very likely has the nomination if Joe Biden retires; however, I think the public greatly underestimates the president seeking a second term. If his condition is similar to today, Uncle Joe is going to run.

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

I agree. I don't think this is a particular amazing poll for Harris, given that she is the vice-president to a currently popular incumbent and that many voters will just show their support for the current administration in a poll of this type - especially three years out when nobody even knows who might be in the running.

This.  Harris is by no means a lock and probably only a narrow favorite for the 2024 nomination as of today, primarily because some of her strongest competition will be dissuaded from running (think 2016).  Nevertheless, if she handles debates like she did in 2020, she will be in trouble. 

[Skill and Chance]

Using this poll to say that she is “very, very likely” is foolish. This poll doesn’t even offer up an actual challenger. It’s just Harris vs “someone else”.

I agree. I don't think this is a particular amazing poll for Harris, given that she is the vice-president to a currently popular incumbent and that many voters will just show their support for the current administration in a poll of this type - especially three years out when nobody even knows who might be in the running.

This.  Harris is by no means a lock and probably only a narrow favorite for the 2024 nomination as of today, primarily because some of her strongest competition will be dissuaded from running (think 2016).  Nevertheless, if she handles debates like she did in 2020, she will be in trouble. 

Unless the Biden administration is unpopular in 2024, who do you guys think will even run against her? Much less even have a chance of winning the Democratic nomination?

Also, Harris's performance in the 2019 debates is irrelevant. She performed well in the VP debate against Pence and in 2024, she will have her VP track record to run on.

It suggests the odds of a significant error in the 2023-24 debates are pretty high.  I agree she likely won't draw the strongest opponents, though.