How will Harris County, TX swing & trend?

[Skill and Chance]

If Biden is the nominee again, he probably holds serve or narrowly gains.  If the nominee is someone else who can more easily be painted as out of touch, elitist, or prioritizing environmental concerns over jobs, it will swing R.  I could see Harris only winning it 52/46 or so, while doing better in Fort Bend. 

[Skill and Chance]

I think it will trend leftward by a couple percentage points.

The democrats didn't in-person canvas this year while republicans did.

In a non-COVID election, democrats will get better margins.

Even if only 58/41 like Beto got in 2018.

I'm not at all convinced that Dem canvassing in 2020 would have produced a net gain.  Even if it increased base turnout marginally, it would fuel the hypocrisy narrative to high heaven and turn off some single issue COVID voters.  In a post-COVID world, I do expect marginal Dem gains from renewed canvassing, but you don't magically get back to 2012 numbers in disadvantaged communities just because you knocked on doors.