Kentucky 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Skill and Chance]

I think Beshear is favored, but keep in mind that Dem incumbents in Appalachian states polling at 50-something to 30-something 6+ months before the election only for it to narrow dramatically in the fall has been very common historically. 

[Skill and Chance]

Even after the COVID crap?

Surprisingly, it's not that big an issue to everyone. You might need to realize that to avoid disappointment.

Trust me, we won't forget.

Perhaps the reason your majority is so silent is because it isn't a majority.

Anyway, what I thought was interesting with that poll was the approval breakdown by region:

https://twitter.com/malarkeyfree/status/1618668315983101953

The regional approval resembles the abortion amendment more than his 2019 map.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1681020362069254144

That time frame includes the entire COVID pandemic.  Beshear was relatively strict and probably ordered non-essential state offices closed at various times.  Has Cameron made any high-profile WFH = lazy comments that could be put into an ad about this?  If so, it could end up hurting him.  If not, meh.

[Skill and Chance]

Beshear I'd we get the Filibuster proof Trifecta, and we should. Scott is the most vulnerable R out there , Beshesr will be the 26 D nominee for S in KY Sen replacement of McConnell

Yes, Beshear is not only going to win, he's going to win by so much that his coattails extend all the way into 2024 and flip the state senate from 80% R to 60% D in a single election.  KY Dems will sweep 75% Trump districts while he is on the ballot, obviously!

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

[Skill and Chance]

Really curious to see if Beshear can crack 70% in Jefferson County. In 2019 he got 67% but I think he'll need higher out of there to win this time around.

A bit more of a stretch but also Fayette County. My guess is he gets around 69%, up from 65% last time around. Like Jefferson, he'll likely need to improve on his 2019 performance here if he wants to win.

I think he looses most if not all of that collection of blue counties in eastern KY he won back in 2019, but still massively outruns Biden in these communities.



Honestly crazy how this County map might be enough for a Beshear victory. Light red Counties flipped from 2019.

This map being a plausible Dem win is why they shouldn't 100% give up on Kentucky, even federally.  It is possible for a Dem to win by just absolutely blowing it out in the cities. 

[Skill and Chance]

Tilt Beshear.

He's popular enough to be slightly favored, but he's veering a lot closer to the national Dem platform than would be optimal.

I think this race offers some clues for 2024 just due to the sheer similarities in the candidates' profiles and branding (see the previous posts in this thread), campaign issues (e.g. abortion and crime), and coalition changes (Beshear/Biden won with a very similar coalition in 2019/2020).

I see three scenarios for this race:

1) Scenario I: Very close race (within 2 points)

This might suggest that the polls showing Biden vs. Trump as a tie aren’t off the mark and that Trump is at least in it — another close/-ish race in 2024, with both candidates having a very narrow path.
 
2) Scenario II: Easier-than-expected Beshear win (5-10 points), race is called ~1 hour after poll closing time

This would suggest that Republicans are in for an avalanche in 2024 and haven’t been able to capitalize on a favorable environment or the incumbent's more liberal record due to their own party being viewed as even less of a viable alternative.

3) Scenario III: Cameron wins by at least 3, race is called ~2 hours after poll closing time

This would suggest that things really have changed since 2020 and 2022 and that there have been sizable shifts against the incumbent.

I’m aware that this is not perfect, but remember that the state has had a fairly good track record when it comes to forecasting shifts for the next cycle's presidential election.

Scenario II might be underrated — while a Pressley overperformance in MS would be another win for the JBE model, Beshear winning this race very easily on the same night would be an ominous sign for the GOP.

Kentucky is very old school demographics wise.  I think it could help us figure out where Dems stand with mildly pro-choice WWC types in a partisan race.  Could help give us a sense of where WI/MI/PA are at.  I don’t think it tells us a darn thing about AZ or NV, though, and little about GA (an R swing with black voters might show up in Louisville?).

[Skill and Chance]

A gubernational race usually means little in the way of predicting federal races, as polarization is far less salient. This is especially true when a popular incumbent is running, making the race even less predictive, as the population incumbent usually way overperforms partisanship in a way that's nearly impossible for federal races.

I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear held on to Elliott County in the gubernational race, only for it to vote for Trump by nearly 60 points in 2024.

Good point.  Historically, the 3rd year of the presidential term elections don’t correlate with much.  Lots of history of Dems who are very different from the national party running and winning in these states.  The general rule in the VA legislature is a underwhelming performance for the governor’s party, but there are exceptions.  There’s a really strong tendency for the president’s party to underperform in the 1st year elections (NJ/VA), but it doesn’t carry over.  

[Skill and Chance]

That's interesting because reguardless of if Beshear wins or loses, I expect smtg simillar to KS-Gov where the Dem has a massive overperformance statewide but re-alignment catches up. In 2022, Kelly lost a significant chunk of her rural support, but made gains in Johnson allowing her to just eek out another win.

That's the perfect summation of the Democrats' problems these days. They pick up rich areas like Johnson County, Kansas, but lose people of normal means in rural areas.

Democrats in 2023 = Republicans in 1991

While I do agree your average resident in Johnson County is better off economically than your average rural Kansas resident, I would not call the voters Dems have been gaining in Johnson County wealthy, moreso professional or upper-middle-class.

The median income in Johnson County is roughly 92k/year. That's def enough to live a decent quality of life, but not enough to be removed from the economic concerns most Americans face and doesn't give you true financial freedom.

Also consider that generally the "educated elite" types Democrats have been gaining with tend to live in communities that are just more expensive to live in, have demanding jobs, and had to invest a lot of time and money into their education. Once you adjust for those factors, I think the economic delta between the rural KS and KY voters Dems have been losing and suburban voters Dems have been gaining is a lot smaller than topline income stats would suggest.

There is a lot of evidence to suggest the truly rich (like 500k/year+) still lean overwhelmingly R, and didn't swing much to the left in 2020.

Democrats may be becoming the party of the upper middle or professional class, but not the rich.

I understand the sentiment here (and your point about cost of living is valid) but this feels like a stretch. And that's coming from someone who has really only lived in affluent areas my whole life (western Union County, NJ and NOVA).

A Household income of $92,000 is in the 62nd percentile -- so a family making that much is basically in the most affluent third of the nation. That's not rich (at least not in America) but it's certainly affluent, especially compared to non-US parts of the West.

There's certainly a distinction between the richer vs the upper middle class, but this feels like splitting hairs a little bit.

Upper half, not third.  62% is less than 2/3.

Yes, and there is a serious distinction where those making ~2X the local average are more Dem than those at the local average, but it snaps back really hard once you get to families bringing in more than the average cost of a house in their community per year (IMO a very compelling definition for truly wealthy).  The latter are considerably more R everywhere, and in many cases were more R in 2020 than in 2016.  Also, note that the somewhat above average income families are more Dem in areas where expenses are higher, and that generic white collar jobs quite clearly haven't keeping up with inflation since COVID.  The cutoff for things to snap back R might be only $200K in the Louisville suburbs but $1M+ in SF/NYC.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/BGPolitics/status/1701795601711517816

In practice, money in politics only matters logarithmically, but if you can outraise your opponent 5X as Beshear has done, that's significant.

[Skill and Chance]

The problem here is that we lost Roe v. Wade under the Democrats. If I was President last year when Roe v. Wade was gutted, I would have had a remedy ready by the end of the weekend, maybe even by the end of the evening. Even after Roe v. Wade was gutted, the Democrats still did not codify Roe v. Wade when they had the chance.

I think the Democrats still control the 2 major cities in Kentucky and a few rural counties too. Are they doing anything to safeguard abortion rights in these places?

So basically this issue has become a fundraising cudgel for the Democrats. They talk a lot, but haven't done anything.

Not trying to derail this thread, but do you know how the US Senate works? You need 60 votes to codify Roe.

There is no unilateral solution to Roe v Wade going down. This is really giving "do something" crowd vibes.

Why didn't they codify Roe in 2009 then?  There were 60 Dems + at least 3 pro-choice R's (Murkowski, Collins and Snowe) in the senate at the time.

[Skill and Chance]

In KY I am definitly waiting on the Louisville Courier-Journal Mason-Dixon Poll. Beshear ain't winning by 16 Points like the Emerson Poll is suggesting.

Weird thing about this is Emerson usually leans pretty R.

I would hesitate to project from LA to KY or vice versa given recent history, including the abortion votes in each state which were dramatically different.  I would say tonight increases the probability of a Beshear collapse in EKY, but a lot of that was already baked in.

[Skill and Chance]

With mail inclduded, the early vote has ended at about D+9.8.
Republicans - 130,877 (42.35%)
Democrats - 160,994 (52.09%)
Independents - 17,172 (5.56%)

Do you know what it was at this point in 2019? I would say looking it this it's anyone's game maybe Beshear with a slight favorite?

These early voters are probably more engaged, more urban, and more moderate/liberal. The early Vote is probably like Beshear +15 right now.

only 16.5% of the early vote is from jefferson county (in 2019, over 19% of the total vote came from louisville). lexington is also underrepresented but to a lesser extent.

this could mean either 1. urban areas are not turning out this year as much as they did in 2019 (obviously bad for beshear) or 2. the election day vote will be more urban than expected (obviously good for beshear)

hard to tell which is true (or maybe both are?) given like u said theres not really a precedent. we will just have to see...

That’s crazy cities aren’t turning out considering they have the most polling places for early vote as opposed to rural counties that sometimes only have one? Could it mean, that rural conservatives are fired up?

Long before COVID, early voting was much less Democratic- somewhat so before Trump, dramatically so before Obama.  Perhaps we are heading back toward that?

Ironically, in the old days the mail-in vote was very R.  It flipped California from a Kennedy lead on election night to a Nixon win in 1960!

[Skill and Chance]

I think Andy's win proves that partisanship still truly isn't the end-all be-all when it comes to elections, and there is something very nice about knowing that.

What was the most pro-Trump county he won, and what county saw the biggest swing compared to Biden's result?

Also Oldham, the richest and most educated county in the state, seems to have swung to Beshear marginally less than the state as a whole.

Letcher County, a rural area in coal country on the VA border was the most pro-Trump county Beshear won.  It came in at 79% Trump.  The county that saw the biggest swing compared to Biden's result was Breathitt County, also a rural area in coal country.  Interestingly, Pike County, which is the most "urban" in coal country, swung less dramatically than its more rural neighbors.

Interestingly, the Dem also got really close (closer than you would expect based on the statewide results) in the one competitive seat on the VA side of Appalachia while none of the narrow Biden suburban seats flipped.  However, that was primarily driven by a college town.