2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Skill and Chance]

What's the most logical explanation for the comparatively low number of EV/VBM in the midwestern swing states?

It's much newer culturally there.  In person EV is a longstanding tradition in many Southern states and VBM is a longstanding tradition in many Western states.

[Skill and Chance]

PA now at 32.3% of 2016 turnout.

Dems 1,354,624 (68.5%)
Reps 426,431 (21.6%)
Other 197,431 (10%)

Dem return rate is 70%, Rep return rate is 54%. Dem lead is now +928K. It was +881K yesterday.

Good lord, PA Dems are on fire.

I'm not convinced this is a leading indicator of how PA is going to vote. Yes, it's good that the Dems are returning their absentee ballots. But PA did not have no-excuse absentee voting nor early voting in the past, so this is pure cannibalization of election day turnout. PA did not suddenly turn into a one party D state. I'm still thinking Biden wins PA by around 6 but I'd hope to see something like 90%+ of absentee ballots returned, we don't want regular D voters not have their vote counted because they sent their ballot in late or something.

PA has widespread drop boxes, so the procrastinators have an option to ensure their votes will count as late as day of. 

[Skill and Chance]

Not even a pandemic or the potential for national VBM shenanigans will prevent Californians from waiting until Election Day to return their ballots

Could Trump somehow sabotage mail-in ballots and win California? Say, they get lost.

Considering 22% of the returned ballots are GOP and Independents have returned more ballots than Republicans, I highly doubt it.

However, I am entertaining the thought that we'll get a reverse 2018 effect. Instead of late ballots being heavily Democrat, they'll be heavily Republican and cause narrowing in races like the OC House seats

Perhaps SCOTUS is going to strike down all state laws allowing ballots received after election day to count, which throws the election to... Biden because Democrats generally returned their ballots first.

*Trump wins the PV because the post-election day CA vote was still Dem leaning

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1321681021293588480?s=20

People are fired up to vote for Katie Porter.

Gonna be Senator Katie Porter here soon I imagine.

God knows I'd love a Senator Porter but I'd be very surprised to see Newsom appoint somebody not named Alex Padilla.

Justice Porter to replace Breyer next summer if Dems have the senate?

[Skill and Chance]

You know what's becoming a consistent theme in this thread?  the fact that Democrats are over performing EVERYWHERE in the south.  If Biden ends up winning 2 or 3 of FL, GA, NC, TX the unspoken heroes will be Beto, Abrams etc. who registered voters and showed everyone the south was competitive, which made this happen.

At this point I wouldn't be surprised at all if Biden wins 2 of the 4 states above, which essentially gives him the election without needing PA.

Very much so, it's going to def be an interesting night tuesday to say the least

I am starting to wonder if Biden wins GA and/or NC while losing at least one of MI/WI/PA. 

[Skill and Chance]

NC is looking really good for Biden, isn't it? I think the swing is going to be big in Mecklenburg&Wake, both because of new voters&swing from R to D in wealthy, educated areas. There already was a big shift in South Charlotte in 2016 and I expect that to continue.

Yes, really think NC (and GA?) are going Dem while FL is staying with Trump.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323301493890523136

Starting to feel strangely upbeat about Florida for Biden.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323616461689073665

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323617184594251777

I know a substantial Republican lead was built in on E Day, but more than 2:1?