Assuming Biden wins, which D-trending areas do the GOP recover in?

[Skill and Chance]

The next Republican president after Trump wins by improving with the urban working class.  Think winning outright in places like IL-03 and MI-05 and going from 15% to 35% in a bunch of VRA districts. 

[Skill and Chance]

The next Republican president after Trump wins by improving with the urban working class.  Think winning outright in places like IL-03 and MI-05 and going from 15% to 35% in a bunch of VRA districts. 

Probably this, but they’d also hold their own in most suburbs/exurbs in the North, which have seen less population growth than the metropolitan areas of the South and where the effects of generational turnover and migration have been less dramatic. Think places like PA-01.

I think the jury is still out on this until we see if/how much Biden improves over Clinton in the North.  If education polarization continues, the 3 most college+ swing states are actually NH, MN, and ME in that order.  Could this explain the big Biden snapback in polling of those 3 states vs. other 2016 swing states?  I agree that places like WI/MI/OH/IA are gone for Dems in the long run, and if you are betting on education polarization over racial polarization, alarm bells should be going off over New Mexico which less college+ than Ohio!  Though perhaps that is mitigated by NM having a ton of postgrads?

[Skill and Chance]

GOP will continue to make gains with rural WWC voters, especially if they embrace Trumpist populism over billionaire donor neoliberalism (not certain they will). At the same time, not having Trump's personal baggage will help them in the suburbs, especially among women.

Serious question, for both the Trumpists and Democratic partisans who love the idea of this trend continuing ... just how many of these voters do you think there are left to flip in states that matter, and just how long do you think the GOP can rely on that and win??

My answers, personally, are not many and not long.

I am less confident in this trend than I was prior to 2020.  If Biden wins primarily by gaining with seniors, the go libertarian to appeal to young people and peak earning years professionals comeback strategy starts to look a lot better than doubling down on the cultural/economic populism strategy.  Trump has already governed considerably more libertarian than anyone expected in 2017.