PA Monmouth - Biden +4

[Skill and Chance]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Yeah, starting to think PA isn't EV #270 for Biden.  Could be FL or AZ (NE-02 becomes essential to Biden in the win AZ, lose PA and FL scenario, but we don't have enough data to know where that falls).

[Skill and Chance]

Consistent with a Biden +7-8 lead nationally. I expect most of the trends from 2012 -> 2016/2018 + the urban/suburban vs. rural/small-town divide to intensify in this election.

I thought you expected PA to trend toward Biden relative to the PV?

[Skill and Chance]

This isn't good for Biden.

PA was three points more Republican than the "nation as a whole" in 2016. It makes sense that a slight R trend (likely) would result in it being 4 points more R this time, so +4 in PA is absolutely in line with a +8 Biden lead nationally. If this is a bad poll for Biden, I don’t want to know what a bad poll for Trump looks like.

Yes, but do you think Biden can win the election without PA?

[Skill and Chance]

Comparing their July/September polls:

Indies
July: Biden +21
September: Tied

Males
July: Trump +2
September: Trump +19

Females
July: Biden +26
September: Biden +24

18-49
July: Biden +31
September: Biden +9

50-64:
July: Trump +13
September: Trump +9

65+:
July: Biden +10
September: Biden +11

Swing Counties
July: Biden +19
September: Trump +2

Whites
July: Biden +2
September: Trump +7

Nonwhites
July: Biden +60
September: Biden +57

So it’s funny how Females stayed totally consistent month to month, and Biden actually even gained among 50-64 year olds and 65+ year olds (with the RNC/Kenosha you would expect otherwise), while he simultaneously collapsed with Men, Indies, and 18-49 year olds.

Considering a few demographics stayed the same while some shifted A LOT, seems like a lot of noise to me, especially the Indies and 18-49 #s. That change is too huge when the demographic you'd expect to be swayed here wasn't at all (old people)

This is not that surprising to me.  The Trump/GOP message is more aimed at families in their peak earning years (~age 35-55) this time than at retirees.  Biden clearly sees a Trump weakness with retirees he is trying to exploit, while he seems to be pricing in a weaker performance (turnout and margins) with 18-29 year-olds than Obama got.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... is EV by CD just a statute that could potentially be repealed by the one party governments in NE and ME, or is it in the state constitutions?  SCOTUS historically has a rule against altering election procedures too close to an election.  Would they strike down an attempt by either state to repeal it in October?  Could it even be repealed in late November/December and apply retroactively to this election?  Asking for John Roberts.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we have now seen a decent amount of evidence that Pennsylvania will vote to the right of Wisconsin this year, which would have very much surprised most people six ago.

And quite possibly right of Florida.  That would have been considered crazy a year ago.