2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Skill and Chance]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering. 

Is that what we're expecting or does CA have some type of independent commission as well?

It has a commission.  The commissioners were chosen on the basis of bios/essays they submitted, which are now public.  In addition to all of the D's, enough of the I and R commissioners to pass a map under the CA rules wrote explicitly woke personal statements.  While there are limits on what they can draw, expect a very Dem leaning map.

[Skill and Chance]

California could singlehandedly solve the Republican reign of terror by gerrymandering. 

Is that what we're expecting or does CA have some type of independent commission as well?

It has a commission.  The commissioners were chosen on the basis of bios/essays they submitted, which are now public.  In addition to all of the D's, enough of the I and R commissioners to pass a map under the CA rules wrote explicitly woke personal statements.  While there are limits on what they can draw, expect a very Dem leaning map.

Not to mention the registered Republican NRDC, NARAL and Planned Parenthood donor living in BERKELEY. Who happened to write about how important California's diversity is.

Holy ****

[Skill and Chance]

These names sounds like you’re trying to summon an eldritch abomination

There is something creepy about those long, vaguely phonetic abbreviations.

[Skill and Chance]

If Republicans continue improving with the Hispanic vote, couldn't this map have like 20 R's by the end of the decade?

[Skill and Chance]

What are the odds depending upon SCOTUS rulings that California could be redrawn?

Couldn’t Dems put something on the ballot saying “Maps across the nation weaken our voice as a Dem heavy state - allowing us to draw maps that make our voice equal would help”

A potential California gerrymander would be a flip of around 16 seats. Making the map Dem friendly or fair at worst

If as part of ISL SCOTUS dimantles commissions, the Cali commission would be one of the first to go since it entirely cuts out the legislature’s participation.

I guess in theory a ballot initiative undoing the commission could happen, but it would be phrased differently

Yes, if an ISL decision reaches redistricting commissions (I still doubt this), it would pose the greatest danger to AZ/CA/CO/HI/ID/MI/MT because legislators are not on the commission.  This list is extremely favorable to Democrats.

Those with a legislative override (IA/NY/UT) are somewhat safer from SCOTUS.

The commissions with legislators on them (OH/NJ/VA/WA) are probably going to be fine.

[Skill and Chance]

What are the odds depending upon SCOTUS rulings that California could be redrawn?

Couldn’t Dems put something on the ballot saying “Maps across the nation weaken our voice as a Dem heavy state - allowing us to draw maps that make our voice equal would help”

A potential California gerrymander would be a flip of around 16 seats. Making the map Dem friendly or fair at worst

If as part of ISL SCOTUS dimantles commissions, the Cali commission would be one of the first to go since it entirely cuts out the legislature’s participation.

I guess in theory a ballot initiative undoing the commission could happen, but it would be phrased differently

Yes, if an ISL decision reaches redistricting commissions (I still doubt this), it would pose the greatest danger to AZ/CA/CO/HI/ID/MI/MT because legislators are not on the commission.  This list is extremely favorable to Democrats.

Those with a legislative override (IA/NY/UT) are somewhat safer from SCOTUS.

The commissions with legislators on them (OH/NJ/VA/WA) are probably going to be fine.

CA and MI are the 2 where I think the legislature is the most removed from the process. Technically one could argue that in AZ at least the leaders get to each appoint a commissioner and such whereas CA and MI are literally just "ordinary" folks.

That’s a good point.  However, if the legislature choosing (some) of the commissioners counts, then wouldn’t the legislature choosing to create an initiative and referendum process (as in CA) count?  For the states admitted with I&R language already in their constitutions (AZ is one of them), one could argue congress approved of that when they admitted them.  Congress still gets to set federal election law and can override state legislatures under most interpretations of ISL.