2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Alabama

[Skill and Chance]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::93720128-bfca-4c99-a1f3-9b2fbe84604a

My take on the likeliest 2021 map.  Roby gets the chop, and Rogers inherits an unsightly Gadsden-to-Dothan district.  Since a Dixiecrat revival is now an impossibility, AL Republicans can sleep well keeping NWAL whole, as well.  Sewell's district is 61% Black by 2018 population and while her district sheds some D precincts around Birmingham due to expansion in the Black Belt, the JeffCo districts are split between Aderholt and Palmer to keep them both safe.

Hmmm... going by the 2017 and 2018 results it seems likely Madison County will eventually flip with the concentration of postgrads living there and the surrounding counties are also accumulating more D votes, though they were near unanimous R before.  I doubt that would be enough to flip the northern district anytime soon, but who knows?

[Skill and Chance]

I just drew a nice AL map that has two 50%+ BCVAP CD's that does not even look particularly ugly. The best scenario for the news this afternoon is for MN to retain an 8th seat I think. AL retaining a 7th CD will most likely mean a second minority performing CD, by the time SCOTUS does its thing at least, assuming it does not reverse Gingles.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/457311a7-6b54-4fd1-a906-4102125c7082

I still don’t understand why the Obama DOJ didn’t push for a 2nd VRA district here.

I suspect the numbers were not there to draw two "compact" 50%+ BCVAP districts that had no overlapping territory at the time (e.g., before the 2019 CVAP data was put into the DRA, it was a very close case whether Gingles triggered a second black performing CD). It may also be that the contours of the Gingles parameters had not been as clarified by SCOTUS as they are now. If the data base the Court uses matches the current data base in the DRA, either the Pubs are going to lose this case, or SCOTUS is going to modify Gingles. The districts are clearly sufficiently compact. Heck, the map does not even entail an extra county chop.

I think the current SCOTUS is more likely to end VRA Section 2 redistricting requirements entirely than it is to force the adoption of this map in AL.  Dems would be smarter to wait for 2031 and hope their position on SCOTUS has improved by then.

[Skill and Chance]

I would say there's no chance this survives SCOTUS review, but having 2 Trump appointees join the ruling and seeing the existing BOE map does give me pause.  One of the Trump appointees was nominated before Doug Jones was elected, so it's not like these were judges moderates handpicked as part of a negotiation between Jones and Shelby.

[Skill and Chance]

Let’s say by some miracle this decision stood. Would such a rational be applied to other southern high African American states with GOP gerrymanders? How many seats could that net Dems?

At most, 2. LA and NC (and the NC map is already in front of courts).

I’m still gonna insist it’ll have some affect on SC. At the very least a new minority influence seat could very easily be argued for, if not two majority minority seats outright

LA is the obvious other state for this, and that one may happen anyway due to JBE's negotiating power.  NC may happen anyway due to Dem control of the state supreme court. 

However, if this ruling ends up creating a broad national standard to the point where it is impacting SC, we also have to consider that it would likely be used to force an additional majority-black seat in MD and possibly IL as well, and to force a majority-Hispanic seat in Las Vegas (which likely creates 2 R leaning seats statewide).  It could also be used in NYC in a way that would constrain NY Dem map drawing meaningfully.

[Skill and Chance]

It's funny reading through this thread and seeing everyone being deadset on either a 5-2 happening or not happening.

The reality is it's prolly a tossup right now, and depends upon what SCOTUS wants to do with it, though it def isn't a shoe-in case either way.

There's been a lot of focus on other Southern states with GOP maps, but I wonder what this precedent would do to existing Dem maps?  It would seem to force a Hispanic CVAP performing district in Las Vegas assuming one can be drawn? 

[Skill and Chance]

I think the court will leave AL-4 and AL-5 untouched, and just do minimal changes to AL-3 and AL-6.   All the real changes will be between 1, 2, and 7 in the south.

Here's what I came up with, somewhat of a least change map I guess (or as close to one as possible) -



https://davesredistricting.org/join/c3aa1155-40cc-4845-9a2a-30678c997a05

Not obviously less compact than the current map!  SCOTUS clearly made the right call here.

[Skill and Chance]

The map is a joke and quite clearly doesn't satisfy the court's demand

https://twitter.com/DavidNir/status/1680973825058455555

Sadly almost everywhere this happens and states surrender their first attempt back to the courts. A real weakness of the American system comparatively is parties inability in many different capacities to sit down with a member and say "You are the weakest link" and sacrifice or chastise them to better the whole. In this situation that would be ensuring their membership get their ideal seats while observing the order, rather than letting the dice roll on potential incumbent pairings or loss of desirable features like airports or wealthy donor neighborhoods.

But that's why special masters exist.

Oddly,  this is so hard because our system is more democratic.  Because we have primaries, the candidates are less like an employee of the party and more like a spouse.  They have legitimacy in their own right.

[Skill and Chance]

Glad to see the AL-LEG sticking up for clear communities of interest!  Fight this one all the way back to the Supreme Court, boys! 

I'm being serious.  Kavanaugh's concurrence is quite clear that non-proportionality is ok if traditional redistricting criteria are followed (i.e., compactness, COIs, etc.)  The problem is that Alabama never advanced this argument in Milligan, instead arguing that Section 2 was unconstitutional in its entirety.  Kavanaugh didn't follow. 

Take another swing at it, argue the Legislature's map on its merits, and watch Kavanaugh reverse.  5-4 in favor of Alabama. 

While there has been a ton of progress in most of the country, do you seriously think black people don't still face discrimination from white elected officials in rural Alabama?!

[Skill and Chance]

If you don't think racism against black people is still a problem in rural Alabama, I don't know what to tell you.  Don't let opposition to national level DEI stuff blind you to reality.

[Skill and Chance]

What’s stopping New York dems from telling their state court to screw itself and passing an egregious gerrymander and daring them to enforce it? You guys are opening up a can of worms lol

I guess New York state law, but this is a federal VRA claim. 

He's right that this line of reasoning (legislative supremacy in drawing congressional maps, which SCOTUS just explicitly rejected) leads to a total of like 5 R districts between all of CA/NY/IL, so be careful what you wish for. 

[Skill and Chance]

2 is going to vote republican at some point probably tbh, maybe this decade evsn

Probably, if current trends hold.  It's a more extreme version of the GA-02 situation.  The entire Dem base is the rural black vote.

[Skill and Chance]

2 is going to vote republican at some point probably tbh, maybe this decade evsn

Probably, if current trends hold.  It's a more extreme version of the GA-02 situation.  The entire Dem base is the rural black vote.

With all due respect, this is just demonstrably false doomerism.  Montgomery and Mobile proper are both in this district and there is no reason to believe that it is going to magically become a Republican district.  Could it trend a little to the right?  Entirely possible.  Are Republicans likely to flip it?  Seems highly unlikely and even that’s probably being too generous to Republican chances this decade.  

It feels like something that would slowly turn into a swing seat and eventually flip in a Dem president midterm assuming the seat survives into the 2030's.  Could easily flip back the next cycle, though, not saying it's going to be a likely R seat!

[Skill and Chance]

2 is going to vote republican at some point probably tbh, maybe this decade evsn

Probably, if current trends hold.  It's a more extreme version of the GA-02 situation.  The entire Dem base is the rural black vote.

With all due respect, this is just demonstrably false doomerism.  Montgomery and Mobile proper are both in this district and there is no reason to believe that it is going to magically become a Republican district.  Could it trend a little to the right?  Entirely possible.  Are Republicans likely to flip it?  Seems highly unlikely and even that’s probably being too generous to Republican chances this decade.  

It feels like something that would slowly turn into a swing seat and eventually flip in a Dem president midterm assuming the seat survives into the 2030's.  Could easily flip back the next cycle, though, not saying it's going to be a likely R seat!

This is just me, but I tend to think it is futile to try to predict how folks will vote past the next redistricting cycle.  I mean, would anyone in 2003 reasonably have predicted the post-2016 party coalitions?  It’s just so far out and so much can happen, that it’s just fun speculation.  I mean, it’s hard enough to predict the next election cycle two years in advance.  I don’t think anyone expected the 2022 results in January of 2022.

I was actually on record expecting "a mildly Republican year" around that time, which is basically what happened.  They flipped the House, but it was nothing special as midterms go.

[Skill and Chance]

New Mexico already upheld the maps

That's being appealed to the state Supreme Court so it's not over yet, though I don't see the democratic appointed Supreme Court overturning it when the republican lower court already upheld it.

Like I said, a big assumption

TBH I think the NC case going to SCOTUS spooked a lot of state supreme courts out of applying general equal protection language or the general principle of equity to impose redistricting standards.  Even though it didn't uphold ISL, it suggested SCOTUS could at some point declare that a state court has gone too far.