Ohio redistricting thread

[Skill and Chance]

No way the Ohio Supreme Court would allow only 2 seats for Democrats.

Yes, it's now only 4R/3D and one of the 4 R's already voted to toss the 2010's map.

[Skill and Chance]

If Democrats aren't sure about the court final ruling it might make sense to lock in the map for 10 years. 1 of the Biden seats is trending pretty D while the other one should remain swingy for a while. The Toledo seat is moving right but the Columbus seat is moving left.(Although not super fast)  As a bonus they even drew a favorable Dem Dayton seat which should be winnable if Turner retires or moves up.

Not a chance, OH SC or bust!

Definitely a gamble, based on timing as well. Will be very well worth it if it works and Connor makes specific requirements. If it doesn't and when the Ohio Supreme court likely flips it could be a massive flop with a future redraw.

It's likely their last chance for a generation.  There's nothing to lose.  This isn't like TX or GA where they can wait for more favorable judges mid-decade. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/jbalmert/status/1496601989291069453?s=20&t=Q0qvbktfSoOAs...

Republican Paul Miller presented a Congressional map before the commission today, which focused on congressional lines. Others testified before the recess until tomorrow, but didn't have maps. An Akron Dem noted he didn't think Geauga belongs with Akron. If this is the future plan, then the court will probably just appoint a master, which they can without jumping through hoops like on the leg side.

IDK don't commission Dems have a strong incentive to make a deal and lock the map in for the decade?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1626227666629332993?s=20

Absolute fact,  it's the worst commission process in the country bar none.

Well, I would say that it's in a larger group of commissions that are basically designed to deadlock and go to a tiebreaker 90% of the time, including AZ, MT, NJ, OH, and VA.  I would say VA punting to the state supreme court (which is non-partisan and not directly elected) is obviously better than the other fall back mechanisms, but the other 4 are all about equally bad and likely to end up as coin flip gerrymanders.

[Skill and Chance]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ohio-attorney-general-rejects-language-amendment-aimed-reforming-102510233

Can he theoretically just keep rejecting the language to ensure no redistricting reform ever ends up on the ballot? If so, why didn't he do so for other amendments such as abortion.

I think that would lead to litigation because he has to give the petitioners instructions on how they could fix the language to make it valid.  If he repeatedly rejects it after they do that in good faith, I don't think it would fly.