2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Tennessee

[Skill and Chance]

The 2002 redistricting in Tennessee really should count as a Dem map.  Tennessee has simple majority veto override, so the GOP governor was nearly irrelevant (and unlike NC and KY, the legislature also controls appointments to the state courts in TN, so there would be little concern over independent supervision coming from the courts).  Whatever concessions the TN GOP was offered, it would have been done with the knowledge that TN Dems ultimately had the power to do whatever they wanted, and the resulting map was anything but clean. 

Also, I do wonder if the east TN R's will want to split Chattanooga/Knoxville after Bredesen nearly broke even in those counties?  Would that compromise the GOP plan for a Nashville split?

[Skill and Chance]

A little off topic, but could what happened in Tennessee happen within the next few years in Kentucky and West Virginia?  

In want way? That question is rather vague.

A complete wipeout of state legislative Dems in Eastern KY/Southern WV?  I think it is only a matter of time.

The one (urban) Dem district left in KY is likely protected by the state constitution and the elected state supreme court that intervened in the 2011 redistricting. 

[Skill and Chance]

Demographically, WV should be the most Republican state in the country and KY easily in the top 5 and arguably 2nd.  I would expect Republican dominance comparable to the Mormon states during George W. Bush's presidency is coming to WV and KY within the next decade.  The redistricting laws do meaningfully help rural Dems in KY though by keeping e.g. Elliott county intact.  There are almost as many Beshear/Republican as Bevin/Dem districts in the legislature now, but I expect most will be gerrymandered away in 2021 as they are almost all within large counties.  Beshear was probably the last gasp of the KY New Deal coalition.  The next R governor will get the message and pay the teachers better.

If anything, I expect TN Dems to go up from their current numbers over the 2020's due to Nashville (70% Bredesen, and not so easily gerrymandered away at the state legislative level), and signs they are finally breaking through in Knoxville and Chattanooga. 

[Skill and Chance]

Demographically, WV should be the most Republican state in the country and KY easily in the top 5 and arguably 2nd.  I would expect Republican dominance comparable to the Mormon states during George W. Bush's presidency is coming to WV and KY within the next decade.  The redistricting laws do meaningfully help rural Dems in KY though by keeping e.g. Elliott county intact.  There are almost as many Beshear/Republican as Bevin/Dem districts in the legislature now, but I expect most will be gerrymandered away in 2021 as they are almost all within large counties.  Beshear was probably the last gasp of the KY New Deal coalition.  The next R governor will get the message and pay the teachers better.

If anything, I expect TN Dems to go up from their current numbers over the 2020's due to Nashville (70% Bredesen, and not so easily gerrymandered away at the state legislative level), and signs they are finally breaking through in Knoxville and Chattanooga. 

Democrats already have every Davidson County district in the state House, but Republicans do have one state Senate district that was Romney-Clinton and is up for re-election in 2020.  The Romney-Clinton House district that covers much of the aforementioned Senate district (though both were very narrow Clinton wins) went Democratic 51-49 in 2018 when the Republican incumbent retired.  The incumbent is running in the Senate election, so I'd call it Tossup/Tilt R for 2020.

There's also a Romney-Trump district in Western and Northern Davidson County, but Republicans have never been able to break through there for some reason.

A lot of making a safe 8-1 map relies on how confident you are that Williamson and Rutherford Counties will stay Safe R.  2018 actually showed some fairly promising signs for Republicans in Williamson County (that I have detailed numerous times here), but Rutherford looked a little more concerning.  Still, that just means that you have to give a little more rural territory/slightly less urban territory to the Rutherford-based district Trump +25 to +30, so it's pretty safe.

It would be illegal because of the VRA, but it's even possible to draw a pretty safe 9-0 map if you get aggressive with both Nashville and Memphis.

Hmmm... I think the greater issue will be Fleischmann.  He is likely going to want all of blood red Bradley back in TN-03 after seeing Bredesen come within 2% in Hamilton.  I guess you just give TN-06 Rutherford then and send TN-04 into southern Nashville with part of Williamson to offset it? 

[Skill and Chance]

Nashville's political future could be in jeopardy by gerrymandered congressional districts | Opinion



Looks like 8-1 is the prevailing plan.

Any chance of a 4-way split being successfully challenged in court or is Tennessee gonna get away with this horsesh**t?

This wouldn't involve any VRA districts and the state courts are now dominated by Republican appointees. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

If this really was a concern, wouldn't Republicans be designing a deliberate "fault line" (so think instead of 4 Trump+15 districts; 3 Trump+17 districts and a final Trump+10 district, or something like that)

That would be the most rational for the party- make TN-05 a Trump +10ish district they would be clearly favored in for 2022 and then only bring the others with GOP incumbents down to Trump +20 or so. 

[Skill and Chance]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/opinion/2021/12/08/jim-cooper-heres-what-happens-if-legislature-slices-up-nashville/6424567001/

A theory making the rounds is that any slice of Nashville will be so indigestible that Republican officials are gagging at the thought, like eating anchovy pizza. But guess what: they would still get solidly Republican districts, although winnable by only 15 points instead of 30. That’s still near-certain victory. A sweetener is that their worries of being primaried diminish.

Cooper really should not frame it this way.

IDK it's lowkey one of the bigger 2026/30 risks either party is taking if they go through with it.  Imagine if TN of all places ended up 5R/4D after a midterm wave!

That still seems pretty unlikely; if I were the GOP I'd rather take that small risk than cede a seat to Dems for the entire decade. If that were to actually end up happenning the GOP would already be in teh deep minority nationally most likely

Suffice it to say I have heterodox views on where Tennessee is going post-Roe.  This isn't a boring Dems will improve everywhere scenario I have in mind.

Let me guess: you think Tennessee is only a conservative state because of abortion?

Not statewide, but I think the Nashville suburbs go the way of the Austin suburbs the moment the issue is taken off the table, with a very fast statewide shift back to 55R/45D or so.

I expect a similar federal shift from the JBE voters in the NOLA suburbs and the Andy Beshear voters in the Kentucky suburbs.  Abortion is the #1 thing keeping culturally Southern suburbs from going Fairfax.