Congressional Primary Results Megathread: AR, GA, KY & TX (Runoff) - May 22

[Skill and Chance]

I predict TX-23 will be the only CD Dems flip.

TX-32 looks reasonably promising for them.  The parties are almost even in turnout and the leading Dem is probably the best candidate on their side.

[Skill and Chance]

General election turnout will likely be twice that of the primary turnout, you can't really determine much from the primaries.

I agree that Beto O'Rourke doesn't have much chance of defeating Ted Cruz, but having a strong candidate at the top of the ticket can help with down ballot races, and there are a number of potentially competitive U.S House districts, and probably State Senate and State House races as well.

Well, whatever this is, it certainly doesn't look like the VA 2017 primary with everyone and his cousin in the suburbs taking the Dem ballot for Northam, which is what many here were basically expecting.  It's a caution sign that doesn't match up well with what's been happening in the rest of the country.

[Skill and Chance]

My takeaway from these results so far:

- Democrats on track to outperform Hillary by around 2-3% in TX overall.
- Have a good shot at taking 3 house seats from TX (perhaps 4, although Alexander's open seat is a big stretch)
- Ted Cruz is going to be very hard to beat if Beto doesn't either do better in these rural counties, or get better margins in the urban counties. Beto underperformed/broke even Hillary in a lot of the rural counties, although tbf rural counties are only about 15-18% of the electorate in TX.

This after the 254 county tour.  I don't see a lot for Dems to like here outside of TX-23 and TX-32 if Allred wins the runoff, which I suspect will be the only pickups.  

[Skill and Chance]

Braun blowout seemingly confirmed in IN-SEN, although I'd want to see a bit more of Messer's district to be sure.

[Skill and Chance]

Rokita now clearly overtaking Messer.  He could make a race of it, but I doubt it given how strong Braun is coming in in the south of the state.

[Skill and Chance]

Rokita now clearly overtaking Messer.  He could make a race of it, but I doubt it given how strong Braun is coming in in the south of the state.

Also if Braun keeps those margins in the Indy suburbs.

However, we've barely seen any of Rokita's district yet.

[Skill and Chance]

WULFRIC PROJECTION:

District 6
Republican Primary
CANDIDATE   VOTE   PCT.
Greg Pence
3,236   68.3%
Jonathan Lamb
1,033   21.8
Mike Campbell
185   3.9
Jeff Smith
157   3.3
Stephen MacKenzie
129   2.7
4,740 votes, 3% reporting (17 of 607 precincts)

Huge upset

Upset? When you are a close relative of the popular former governor/current VP?

[Skill and Chance]

The Braun landslide in Evansville would seem to close the deal for him.

[Skill and Chance]

The thing is, Messer is doing better in his home territory than Rokita is in his, but Rokita's in second almost everywhere where Braun's winning. So no clear favorite to 11th hour Braun, and unless we get something shocking out of Lake County, Braun has this.

Rokita is also taking some damage in his own CD with Braun winning counties.

[Skill and Chance]

Hello North Carolina!

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/993997419267461123

Harris would hand that kind of district to the Dems in a year like this.

[Skill and Chance]

Which District is Pittenger?

NC-09, probably the 2nd best Dem opportunity after NC-13.

[Skill and Chance]

Blankenship should be expected to underperform in the early vote given his late surge.  Still, the margin by which he is down is pretty shocking.

[Skill and Chance]

Rokita leading by 15 in Lake early.

No way that's enough to bring him back from 3rd, though.

[Skill and Chance]

Morrisey landslide evaporating.

[Skill and Chance]

The no-name Republicans are doing well in the WV Senate primary, taking 15.5% so far.

Probably just super motivated friends/family early voters.

[Skill and Chance]

WV has been known to be unrepresentative early, but I'm not really seeing a path for Blankenship right now.

[Skill and Chance]

Still early, but getting hard for me to see how Morrisey loses.

If there are enough independents voting in the southern counties, he could still lose to Jenkins.

[Skill and Chance]

Still early, but getting hard for me to see how Morrisey loses.

If there are enough independents voting in the southern counties, he could still lose to Jenkins.

Jenkins really needs to do better in the Eastern Panhandle, where there’s not a lot of vote in yet.

Don't base anything on Morrisey's landslide in Jefferson.  It's a DC bedroom community, quite wealthy and fiscon by WV standards.

[Skill and Chance]

Jenkins leading in Harrison, in the North, with Blankenshit in second and Morrisey in third.

Interesting.  Jenkins = Lean R in the general.

[Skill and Chance]

Right now, advantage Jenkins.

The apparent landslide margins in the East should save Morrisey?  Then again, Blankenship clearly hurting Morrisey and helping Jenkins, especially in the central and NW areas.

[Skill and Chance]

Looking like the door has closed for Jenkins.

[Skill and Chance]

The Club for Growth guy is ahead in WV-03 on the R side now.  Would be good news for Ojeda in the fall.

[Skill and Chance]

188/210 precincts

Harris 15,528 48.75%
Pittenger 14,602 45.84%

Unless Pittenger's home precinct is out, I think this is over.

[Skill and Chance]

If Pittenger loses, NC-09 automatically becomes Tilt D

Harris is Cruz wing, not Trump wing, right?  If anything, I would think Pittenger would be the Trumpy candidate with his real estate background.

[Skill and Chance]

I find it hilarious that Swearengin's two best counties are the ones that gave Hillary her highest percentage of the vote (Monongalia) and her lowest percentage of the vote (Mingo). What a coalition! lol

Not really surprising.  Bernie's 2016 base was college towns + conservadems.