Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Skill and Chance]

Keep in mind that most of these early vote totals are coming from the 15 biggest counties, and Republicans probably have a strong lead elsewhere.

Probably, but these 15 counties account for 2/3 of the state, and I believe 8 of Clinton's 10 best counties were not part of these 15.

Yeah South Texas is very Democratic and is generally not large enough to be in the top 15. A lot of the rural Republican counties are tiny too, some with only dozens or hundreds of votes.

This.  The GOP vote in Texas is actually geographically packed.  If in some future election, the statewide legislative vote was GOP+2-4, Democrats would probably win both chambers and almost certainly take the lower house.  This skew is a feature of many Southwestern states, particularly in the chamber with more districts (see how close the Dems are to parity in AZ, for example).

[Skill and Chance]

Do y'all think Lupe Valdez's visit to the California Dem convention in the last stretch of the primary will hurt her? I usually tune out social media chatter but there are a lot of Dems on Twitter and Facebook who seem mad at her for flying out there instead of staying in the state to campaign. Think word of mouth might hurt her on election day?

I think White was a clear favorite anyway given how many endorsements he is getting out of DFW.  This might foreclose the possibility of Valdez forcing him into a runoff, though.

[Skill and Chance]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

[Skill and Chance]

It would be interesting if Beto won by surging massively vs 2012 in Austin suburbia+Fort Bend and Latino communities throughout the state, while still getting blown out in Houston/Dallas suburbia.

Would seem to be a more plausible path to democrats making Texas competitive than going through Collin county and similar types.

You can run up those greater Austin numbers all you like, but the path to victory goes through the suburbs and exurbs of Dallas and Houston. Maybe not winning them, but making them close. That and high turnout from the Valley.

Hmmm... the geographic path to a Dem statewide victory in Texas probably isn't that different from Jones's victory in Alabama.  Looking at the swing to Jones in Birmingham, that would probably mean the winning Texas Dem is getting 82% in Travis, 67% in Harris and Bexar and 75% in Dallas, with Tarrant being about 55% Dem.  If that happens and nothing much changes from 2016 in the rural areas or the exurbs, what does that look like statewide?

I assume you probably don't live in Texas

Also, the Texas demographics are quite different than Alabama's. Alabama is your typical Deep South state, with a significant African-American heavily Dem minority, while Texas has a significant Hispanic minority (a plurality in a few decades) that is more swingy in general and quite conservative in the northern rurals.

I was thinking the path to victory in a Republican Gulf Coast state right now is beating Clinton by 15% in the big cities and college towns while little changes elsewhere.  Maybe that is crazy, but it's roughly what happened in Alabama last December.