Less than 2 weeks out, your VA Gov race prediction.

[Skill and Chance]

GOV

Northam 49/47

LT GOV

Vogel 49.6/49.3 after recount

AG

Herring 51/46

HoD

59R/41D (D+7)

[Skill and Chance]

Northam 51.22%
Gillespie 46.26%

While the above outcome is still possible, this wouldn't surprise me:

Northam 49.43%
Gillespie 47.81%

I am torn between the standard Republican takes all the undecideds in VA scenario, which wold result in something like this with Northam +1-2 and the polls are hedging on truly insane Dem postgrad turnout in NOVA and Richmond/Charlottesville and all the statewide Dems get Obama 2008 numbers.  If it's another 2013, Vogel should take LG.

[Skill and Chance]

Governor:

Northam: 50.21%
Gillespie: 47.06%

Lieutenant Governor:

Vogel: 48.08%
Fairfax: 47.66%

VA-GOV

49.5% Northam (D)
47.3% Gillespie (R)
3.2% Hyra (L)

VA-LG

50.7% Fairfax (D)
48.8% Vogel (R)

VA-AG

52.5% Herring (D, inc.)
47.1% Adams (R)

No idea what will happen, though. I have a hard time believing that Republicans can really win a statewide race here, honestly. VA's strong Democratic lean/trend and it being an off-year election/the federal opposition party turnout phenomenon should save the Ds in the end, though Gillespie has run a pretty good campaign so far, it seems. He obviously knows his state well, but like I said... I just don't think the votes are there for him to win. Lean D.

There's also the possibility that Democrats actually outperform their polling average.

Fairfax won't outperform Northam.

Yep, if VA-GOV is only Northam +2, LG is going to a recount at best for Fairfax.  He can't withstand even the slightest Shy Republican polling error.  Although it's worth noting that the VA 2013 polling was accurate for LG and AG and only overstated McAuliffe's margin at the top of the ticket.

[Skill and Chance]

^ There’s no Libertarian candidate on the ballot for either the LG or AG races. Therefore in all likelihood Fairfax and Herring will get a higher vote % than Northam.

Thinking about margin here.  I wouldn't assume libertarians are hurting Dems in margin terms, probably the opposite.

[Skill and Chance]

Northam by less than 1%

It's worth noting that if there is a recount/dispute situation in any state level VA election, either candidate can contest it to the state legislature and the legislature will choose the winner by majority vote of the entire legislature.  In any situation where a statewide race is too close to call, it will almost surely still have a substantial Republican majority.

[Skill and Chance]

Northam by less than 1%

It's worth noting that if there is a recount/dispute situation in any state level VA election, either candidate can contest it to the state legislature and the legislature will choose the winner by majority vote of the entire legislature.  In any situation where a statewide race is too close to call, it will almost surely still have a substantial Republican majority.

The sitting governor can't veto this?

No, although as was noted above, Republicans could have used this procedure in 2013 for AG but chose not to.