When Do Democrats Get the House Back?

[Skill and Chance]

I think the obvious candidates are 2016 and 2022, either from presidential coattails or better redistricting.  Imagine what Schweitzer or Warner could do for Democrats in a lot of those R+3 outer suburban districts.

[Skill and Chance]

probably in the next GOP presidency midterm.

I used to think that, but I don't know anymore.  When the bottom fell out for Bush, he had ~30% approval.  A GOP president with average 50/50 approval or even 45% approval may not put enough of those R+3-4 seats in danger.  By contrast, a Democratic president even at 50/50 approval would be in danger of losing a House majority because a solid majority of districts would narrowly disapprove.

I actually think the best bet pre-2022 is riding the coattails of a D president with a solid 10% PV win.

[Skill and Chance]

Gerrymandered district lines will be their most effective in 2012, and slowly start to lose efficacy as more elections roll around (and, more specifically, demographic shifts happen). With the right candidates (and wrong Republicans), Democrats could break through in 2016. And, if an unpopular Republican wins the 2016 race, then the Dems will have a terrific shot at the House in 2018.

But the thing is, the Democratic coalition is shifting toward being more, not less packed.  The Obama 2008-Romney 2012 areas are all outer suburbs and rural areas.  A lot of the urban areas went from 75% to 80%.  The only really promising areas for additional house gains are Florida, the rural West and some suburban VA districts that probably weren't gerrymandered enough.