When Do Democrats Get the House Back?

[Skill and Chance]

I think the obvious candidates are 2016 and 2022, either from presidential coattails or better redistricting.  Imagine what Schweitzer or Warner could do for Democrats in a lot of those R+3 outer suburban districts.

[smoltchanov]

2022 in absence of new big "wave"

[Mr.Phips]

2018, under the next GOP President. 

[Brittain33]

I think the most likely possibility is a year when Dems are riding high with a coalition different from the Obama coalition so it reshuffles the gerrymandering and opens up new possibilities. For example, if the Republicans make a run at Medicare under Paul Ryan and we have a senior-friendly Dem at the top of the ticket, that opens up districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin we'd otherwise lose with the Obama base vote being determinative. Meanwhile, the Dem districts in those states and elsewhere will be uncompetitive for Republicans.

[Mr.Phips]

I think the most likely possibility is a year when Dems are riding high with a coalition different from the Obama coalition so it reshuffles the gerrymandering and opens up new possibilities. For example, if the Republicans make a run at Medicare under Paul Ryan and we have a senior-friendly Dem at the top of the ticket, that opens up districts in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin we'd otherwise lose with the Obama base vote being determinative. Meanwhile, the Dem districts in those states and elsewhere will be uncompetitive for Republicans.

Republicans have packed Dems in  PA, OH, MI, and WI so tightly that there is not a single Dem seat they would have a chance at picking up in any of those states, even in a 2010 environment. 

[morgieb]

2022, although that depends on 2016.

[Meeker]

Not for quite awhile.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If fair Mid-Decade redistrictings are implemented in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, they have a shot in 2016-2018. Otherwise, not before 2022.

[freepcrusher]

probably in the next GOP presidency midterm.

[Sbane]

Whenever Democrats are able to win the PV by about 3-4 points.

[Vosem]

Not until they either win the House popular vote by a cool 6-7 points or more, which will be very hard but is doable in a big enough wave, or after the next wave of redistricting -- the first elections under the new map will be in 2022, but keep in mind because of incumbent power even something relatively successful for democrats will require a small wave. To put in bluntly: it is very very likely 2022 is the earliest year anything can occur, however you don't know what the political climate will be like and it's far too early to say democrats will definitely take the house.

[Skill and Chance]

probably in the next GOP presidency midterm.

I used to think that, but I don't know anymore.  When the bottom fell out for Bush, he had ~30% approval.  A GOP president with average 50/50 approval or even 45% approval may not put enough of those R+3-4 seats in danger.  By contrast, a Democratic president even at 50/50 approval would be in danger of losing a House majority because a solid majority of districts would narrowly disapprove.

I actually think the best bet pre-2022 is riding the coattails of a D president with a solid 10% PV win.

[adma]

And remember, too: it also depends upon broad party strategizing, i.e. if the Dems are operating on a passive "electoral gravity" model, as opposed to a more ambitious Howard Dean-esque "50 State Strategy" model (which might have a touch of "gerrymander?  what's that?" about it), recovering the House will come later rather than sooner.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probably not until at least 2022 when hopefully things stop being so badly gerrymandered for the Republicans. Maybe 2018 if a Republican wins in 2016. Other then that, it's not impossible, but it's definitely a pretty long shot.

[Knives]

When gerrymandering is done fairly and independently.

[Talleyrand]

When gerrymandering is done fairly and independently.

Was that supposed to be some sort of oxymoron?

[Miles]

When gerrymandering is done fairly and independently.

Was that supposed to be some sort of oxymoron?

I think he meant 'redistricting.' Yes, a slight difference in semantics, but the implications are quite different.

[Talleyrand]

When gerrymandering is done fairly and independently.

Was that supposed to be some sort of oxymoron?

I think he meant 'redistricting.' Yes, a slight difference in semantics, but the implications are quite different.

Oh, okay. But yeah, I agree with him. Republicans have locked the House down for the remainder of the decade.

[Knives]

Yeah redistricting, whatevs.

[Cryptic]

I'll be optimistic and say 2016-2018. 

[Sbane]

Not until they either win the House popular vote by a cool 6-7 points or more, which will be very hard but is doable in a big enough wave, or after the next wave of redistricting -- the first elections under the new map will be in 2022, but keep in mind because of incumbent power even something relatively successful for democrats will require a small wave. To put in bluntly: it is very very likely 2022 is the earliest year anything can occur, however you don't know what the political climate will be like and it's far too early to say democrats will definitely take the house.

No, it only takes a Dem win of about 3-4 points and a lot of those gerrymanders will come apart. A lot will depend on candidate quality of course. Republicans better hope their congressman in Pennsylvania or Ohio don't act crazy.

Also there are targets in California like Denham, Mckeon, Valadao and Miller.

[minionofmidas]

2014 at the very earliest.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

2018 perhaps, why is everyone saying 2022? That seems too far away!

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

2018 perhaps, why is everyone saying 2022? That seems too far away!

Current district lines strongly favor the GOP and won't change until after the 2020 Census.

[Brittain33]

2018 perhaps, why is everyone saying 2022? That seems too far away!

Current district lines strongly favor the GOP and won't change until after the 2020 Census.

People were saying the same thing in 2002 and 2004, and for good reason, and then 2006 happened.