North Carolina White Democrats (corrected version...)

[Skill and Chance]

Shuler has already demonstrated that he can make it in a quite Republican district and he is not afraid to publicly distance himself from Congressional Democratic leadership, to say the least.  I think he is likely to survive 2012 barring an even more dramatic GOP wave that year.  Depending on how they draw the map, Price and possibly McIntyre will get an ubersafe Obama voter packed district.  It depends on how aggressive they want to be vs. how much they fear a new 2008 style election breaking their gerrymander.  I think Miller and Kissell are in the mostt danger by far.

[Skill and Chance]

Miller was one of the architects of the current gerrymander a decade ago; he actually drew his own district. He's f***ed.

Not necessarily. Greensboro has a ton of Democrats and you have to stuff them somewhere.

If Miller gets the save, then theyt will take out McIntyre in the SE.  I think there is a lot more bad blood with Miller than with McIntyre, so I assume he would be a more likely target.

[Skill and Chance]

I guess if they were going to be less ambitious, they could pack as many Dems into McIntyre's district as possible to make a 9-4 map.

10-3 would probably be done if there was a really compelling reason to get rid of McIntyre. There isn't.

9-4 is extremely easy, extremely safe, and cleaner than the current map.

I also think the final map will be 9-4, opening up enough opportunities for pick-ups while keeping the GOP incumbents reasonably safe.  I have a couple of issues with your map, though:

1. High ranking NC Republicans in the state legislature have expressed a strong desire for compacting the districts, particularly by redrawing NC-12 as a VRA district within Mecklenberg County, or at least within metro Charlotte.  They probably have a winning case from a good-government perspective and it is still possible to draw a 9-4 map with a southern tier/Charlotte incarnation of NC-12.  The difference is that the 4th Democratic leaning district ends up in the Research Triangle/Greensboro area, adjacent to NC-4, and it should end up being significantly more compact.  I think it is more likely that we will see a map with a retooled NC-12 and two triad/central NC democratic districts, as opposed to only one Triangle district and a Democratic district in the SE.  The downside from the GOP perspective is that Brad Miller would likely take the second safe Triangle district, and they would be unable to return the favor for the inappropriate way he treated them during the 2001 redistricting.   

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

[Skill and Chance]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal. 

How might you put McIntyre in a 60+% Obama district given where he lives and the politics of his part of the state? Wouldn't that require putting him in a district that essentially already belongs to another rep, like Butterfield or Price?

I know I've seen legal maps with districts as Democratic as D+6, and possibly higher.  There is actually a substantial Democratic base in the Fayetteville and Lumberton areas.  Also, it is possible to draw NC-07 as a 3rd majority-minority district.

[Skill and Chance]

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

But the question is can he win in such a district?  HIs current one is like 50% McCain, and he won a narrow victory last year.  Put him in a 58-ish% McCain District (which is fairly easy to do) and I don't think he'll survive, if not in 2012 then the next time the Democrats don't have a good national year.

McIntyre is currently in a R+5 district.  I don't remember the McCain margin over Obama, but I would imagine it was stronger for McCain than 50%.  I still think the GOP would be better off giving McIntyre an R+7 to R+10 district and hoping he loses.  It's better to have a second Democratic vote sink available to the Triangle, where the GOP could have another Fairfax, VA on it's hands in a few years due to rapid science/tech industry growth and in-migration of educated northerners.

[Skill and Chance]

I also think the final map will be 9-4, opening up enough opportunities for pick-ups while keeping the GOP incumbents reasonably safe.  I have a couple of issues with your map, though:

1. High ranking NC Republicans in the state legislature have expressed a strong desire for compacting the districts, particularly by redrawing NC-12 as a VRA district within Mecklenberg County, or at least within metro Charlotte.  They probably have a winning case from a good-government perspective and it is still possible to draw a 9-4 map with a southern tier/Charlotte incarnation of NC-12.  The difference is that the 4th Democratic leaning district ends up in the Research Triangle/Greensboro area, adjacent to NC-4, and it should end up being significantly more compact.  I think it is more likely that we will see a map with a retooled NC-12 and two triad/central NC democratic districts, as opposed to only one Triangle district and a Democratic district in the SE.  The downside from the GOP perspective is that Brad Miller would likely take the second safe Triangle district, and they would be unable to return the favor for the inappropriate way he treated them during the 2001 redistricting.   

2. I disagree with you on the motives for giving McIntyre the safe Dem district.  If the NC GOP puts him in a D-PVI district, let alone a 60%+ Obama district, it is basically guaranteed that he will lose the primary to a liberal.  McIntyre voted to repeal HCR, after all.  The problem is that he already knows that he would likely lose, so he might give up on NC-07 and  run in one of the neighboring 55% McCain districts instead.  Obviously this would be very counterproductive for the GOP map drawers if he managed to win.

What you're describing is a much more dangerous 9-4 map than what I have, because you're stuck cracking Fayetville. There should be pressure within the NC delegation to maintain the existing NC-12.

And I don't think (2) is necessarily guaranteed. There are occasional Republicans like Walter Jones who sit in heavily Republican districts who vote moderately. The same is true with Dan Lipinski and Steve Lynch. He's the incumbent and has a base here.

If he runs in the 55% district next door, he'll probably party switch first, which is fine.

If the district is majority-minority, or within 5% of that, then identity politics would probably be enough to generate a primary challenge. 

Sure, cracking Fayetteville carries its own risks, but your teal and gray districts are going to be demographic traps for the GOP by 2020.  Fayetteville isn't growing nearly as much as those areas are.