Edwards' impact

[millwx]

It remains to be seen whether this data will hold and what, if any, impact the selection of John Edwards as VP candidate will have.  But the only available poll we have (not TERRIBLY recent, but not too old either) shows the following...

AP/IPSOS Jun 7-9:
 Bush 46%  Kerry 45%
 Bush/Cheney 44%  Kerry/Edwards 47%

Effectively, 2% abandons Bush and goes to Kerry, for a 4% swing.  This poll contains Nader as well... receiving 6% in both cases.  Of course, we all know about the Mason-Dixon poll in NC which showed the race tighten there with Edwards.  But that's the only state race I know of that's been polled with the VP option on it.

Regardless of your affiliation or opinions, it'll certainly be interesting to see the poll coming out containing data after July 5th!

[millwx]

I expect Edwards already built into the polls to a degree, especially here in NC where the local news has been talking as if he was the choice for the past month.

The only "proof" (the AP/IPSOS poll and the Mason-Dixon NC poll) shows otherwise.  That is, they do show a measurable difference when inserting VPs (Edwards and Cheney) into the question.  Note also that the AP/IPSOS poll, with its 1% Bush lead without Veeps was in pretty excellent agreement with other polls... showing Bush slightly ahead.  So, by all indications, this selection is not factored into any polls.  I'm not arguing that any impact will "stick"... esp. for four long months until election day.  But, nonetheless, the impact isn't in the current polls.