Israel hits back against Iran (bombs Isfahan, home to nuclear facilities)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Media reports seem to suggest the sole injury was to a 10 year old Bedouin girl.* Hoping for the best. I wonder whether this indicates that Iran's capabilities have been overstated or that they are hiding more powerful capabilities.

*Mentioned because it is powerfully ironic that the only victim of the so-called "Islamic" Republic of Iran is the kind of person it theoretically advocates for -- a little Muslim girl. She was, of course, treated by Israeli doctors in an Israeli hospital regardless of her faith.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/medics-treating-first-injury-from-iran-attack-a-10-year-old-boy-from-bedouin-town-of-arad-in-serious-condition/

With the benefit of hindsight it's clear that Iran's goal was to hammer the Ramon Air Base from which the attack on their Damascus embassy was conducted and in that goal they succeeded

https://twitter.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1779335867762405866

The drones and most of the missiles were clearly just intended to soak up interceptors so that the more sophisticated, higher yield missiles (I've seen suggestions the ones that got through were hypersonics though no confirmation) could do their job. Might not be WW3 but it was the first time an Israeli air base has been hit by a sovereign state in decades.

Some people are looking at this as a sign of Iranian weakness but it looks far more like an extremely precisely calibrated strike that demonstrated they know almost exactly how many missiles they need to get through Israeli (and friends) AD to hit any high value target in Israel. There's a picture floating around somewhere of missiles flying over the Knesset: if the Iranians had felt vindictive they could have easily hit it or any other symbolic site instead of Ramon.

Instead, they're leaving an option for the Israelis to have "peace with honour": declare victory because of the lack of casualties, claim that the hits on Ramon were ineffective, respond with strikes on the IRGC in Syria/Iraq or maybe even not at all, everyone gets to claim this proves they're the toughest kid on the block and we can deescalate from there. This is clearly what Biden wants and would be the responsible option to take but if Netanyahu's cabinet is feeling bold we'll find out whether this attack was really a sign of weakness or if it was just a preview of what a real war would look like.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

An important point:

"Iran launched 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles at Israel.

The lack of significant damage isn’t because Iran didn’t try, but a testament to Israeli and U.S. air defense and air power."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779421078344941749

This is just such obvious BS I can't believe anyone believes it.

Iran repeatedly hit multiple Israeli air bases with missiles, if they had seriously wanted they could have hit HaKirya or smoked the Knesset instead. Does this guy seriously believe that it's just a coincidence that everything that got through hit a military target out in the Negev instead of the countless easy civilian targets along the way?

The IRI is an absolutely brutal regime that deserves to be replaced but they responded to an attack on their embassy with exactly enough firepower to reestablish deterrence. The one recklessly escalating here is Netanyahu.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

An important point:

"Iran launched 185 drones, 110 ballistic missiles and 36 cruise missiles at Israel.

The lack of significant damage isn’t because Iran didn’t try, but a testament to Israeli and U.S. air defense and air power."

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1779421078344941749

Power-mad and insane as he may be, I strongly doubt Bibi feels this will be sufficient provocation to enter into a protracted military conflict that Iran is calculating to pariah Israel even further, particularly when Iran will say this was not unprovoked but a response to the embassy attack.

I am also not sure if Israel could defeat Iran without direct US involvement either

depends what you mean by "defeat", they could nuke all major Iranian cities and their nuclear installations.

Yeah, that's the thing - Israel could easily defeat Iran, but not in a way they want to.

And everyone understanding this is probably a big part of why the US will never even threaten to withhold its defense of Israel in a situation like this.

By this logic shouldn't the US be helping Putin defeat Ukraine?

It's weird that when Putin does nuclear blackmail it's proof that Putin must be defeated but when the Israelis do nuclear blackmail it's proof that America has no choice but to help Israel

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

With the benefit of hindsight it's clear that Iran's goal was to hammer the Ramon Air Base from which the attack on their Damascus embassy was conducted and in that goal they succeeded

https://twitter.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1779335867762405866

Do you have any evidence of massive "hammering" of Ramon Air Base, and that the Iranian "goal was successful" on this air base?

Your image shows some missiles hitting somewhere, but it looks like it's hitting a town or the outskirts of a civilian area, not an air base.
You need to be careful with some of the tweets and videos out there. They are fake. They say one thing, but it's entirely something else.

There is obviously going to be pro-Iranian a**holes who are spreading disinformation, to make their side "look good" regarding this low-casualty, low-damage attack.

For example, here is one or two videos titled "Israel's Ramon Airbase hit by missiles." (At least 7 missles supposedly hit.)
In reality it's a video of a fire here in Texas USA, from a couple months back. LOL.

https://www.islamtimes.org/en/video/1128491/israel-s-ramon-airbase-hit-by-missiles

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/213834/VIDEO-Israel-s-Ramon-Airbase-hit-by-missiles

It's pretty weird that you're referring to videos I didn't post as proof to not trust the one I did because it's been pretty well confirmed by everyone, including the Washington Post, that the Iranians did in fact manage to penetrate Israeli air defenses to land hits not just at Ramon but at the Nevatim Base and their intelligence base at Mt. Hermon in the Golan Heights.  To my understanding the latter received the most severe hits and the damage report is under military censorship so who knows how much damage they did; obviously the Israelis will say it's no big deal and the Iranians will say it was crippling.

But the fact of the matter is that Iran demonstrated that they can get through Israel's air defenses even with two weeks advanced warning and help from half of NATO and the Arab world to boot. Western outlets are acting like it was no big deal to give Netanyahu an out so he doesn't look weak if he doesn't respond with a direct attack on Iran but I don't think that view will survive critical examination. Israeli leadership seems to be taking the threat far more seriously

https://twitter.com/MairavZ/status/1779486938870780208

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So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

I certainly wouldn't, but like most boomers, Biden holds Israel to a far lower standard than he does the rest of the world. I think he will cave to Likud, this has been the pattern so far.

Put simply, Iran can't destroy Israel but Israel can destroy Iran. However, it will only do that if it is hit hard enough to extract a horrific response, similar to what Hamas caused. Therefore, yes, it is in everyone's interest that Biden will continue to deter Iranian attacks against our ally, and thank G-d we have a smart and practical president instead of the alternatives.

It isn't at all obvious that Iran can't destroy Israel (particularly if Israel didn't have American backup) but regardless you could just as easily say that Ukraine can't destroy Russia but Russia can destroy Ukraine, do you apply this same logic there?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So to be clear, if Netanyahu completely defies Biden and strikes Iran will Biden still try to intercept Iranian missiles fired in retaliation?

I certainly wouldn't, but like most boomers, Biden holds Israel to a far lower standard than he does the rest of the world. I think he will cave to Likud, this has been the pattern so far.

Put simply, Iran can't destroy Israel but Israel can destroy Iran. However, it will only do that if it is hit hard enough to extract a horrific response, similar to what Hamas caused. Therefore, yes, it is in everyone's interest that Biden will continue to deter Iranian attacks against our ally, and thank G-d we have a smart and practical president instead of the alternatives.

It isn't at all obvious that Iran can't destroy Israel (particularly if Israel didn't have American backup) but regardless you could just as easily say that Ukraine can't destroy Russia but Russia can destroy Ukraine, do you apply this same logic there?

If Iran was in the position to destroy Israel, it would cease to be able to within minutes, unless you're alleging they have secret nukes already.

As for Russia-Ukraine, we should be aiding our allies in both Ukraine and Israel against their barbarian attackers.

If Israel launched a preemptive nuclear first strike then it would almost certainly be subsequently hit whether by the Russians, the Chinese, the Pakistanis or maybe even the Iranians themselves. That you're willing to even try to justify something like that is psychotic but it's also irrelevant because Netanyahu would retire to Miami to live as a wealthy exile long before he'd do anything that crazy.

Short of that, in a conventional war along the lines of Russia-Ukraine it seems pretty obvious that Israel would get the worst of it. The only reason Netanyahu can afford to be reckless is because he has American protection regardless of how aggressive he is or how blatantly he defies American policy.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So Biden wagging his finger at Netanyahu while promising him unconditional military support and tens of billions in aid didn't convince him to deescalate. What a shock.

The airspace between Israel and Iran is already starting to clear out. We'll see whether this goes all out or if missile exchanges between Iran and Israel will just be a thing now like they are for Israel and Hezbollah.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So Biden wagging his finger at Netanyahu while promising him unconditional military support and tens of billions in aid didn't convince him to deescalate. What a shock.

Bit of a rush to judgement, given that Israel could easily have done a lot more.

It actually looks as if the widespread (not just the US) calls for restraint may have had some impact. Certainly there were those around the Israeli government arguing for a much harsher response.

Firing anything at Iran is escalatory by definition but yes, they could have gone even further (as could the Iranians). At the time I wrote that post multiple outlets were claiming Israel had hit multiple targets in Iran with ballistic missiles, supposedly "confirmed by US officials", and it didn't occur to me that they'd say that if it hadn't actually happened. That they'd even bother with a direct attack on Iran that only consisted of three drones seems inconceivable yet so far there's still no evidence of any damage or direct hits so maybe the Iranians aren't lying this time:

There does not appear to be any extensive damage at an air base purportedly targeted by an Israeli military strike, according to exclusive satellite images obtained by CNN from Umbra Space.

The synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite images were taken around 10:18 a.m. local time.

There does not appear to be any large craters in the ground and there are no apparent destroyed buildings. Additional visual satellite imagery will be needed to check for burn scars – which cannot be seen by SAR images -- around the complex.

SAR images are not like normal satellite images.

The SAR images are created by a satellite transmitting radar beams capable of passing through clouds, like the ones currently preventing satellites from imaging the area. Those radar beams bounce off objects on the ground, and echo back to the satellite.

Iranian news agency FARS said that an army radar at the Isfahan province military base was one of the possible targets, and that the only damage from the attack was broken windows on several office buildings.

The images also show that the Iranian F-14 Tomcats that have been stationed at the air base in the past are not there at the moment. Additional archival satellite imagery reviewed by CNN shows that those F-14 Tomcats have not been there for some time.

Also, whether the tepidity of the response is because they were pressured by Biden or because they were afraid of the potential Iranian response to a "serious" strike remains to be seen.