Democrats got slaughtered in the downballot. Not only did the suburban revolt not progress, but Republicans got back up to 2016 levels. In my eyes, it shows that the suburban strategy is poisonous for the downballot, especially in elastic states. The GOP pumped the airwaves with anti-income tax messages, and with an incompetent Democratic nominee against a wildly popular governor, it showed split-ticket voting is still alive in America.
* The Executive Council, which manages appointments and contracts, will be 4-1 for Republicans. I had a gut feeling about Cryans, and was very bullish on Stevens. I didn't expect them to take out Pignatelli. Not only does this mean Gordon MacDonald (a political hack who has no judicial experience) will be elevated to Chief Justice, but Planned Parenthood is in grave danger. Wheeler and Kenney have voted to defund - most of the reason it's been funded these past few years has been Sununu himself (during his pivot to the center to run) and Prescott. Now, Democrats are relying on Chris Sununu to run.
* The House is lost. A slate of former and current nutjobs (notably Susan DeLemus, wife of arrested Bundy rancher Jerry DeLemus). The Senate is even worse. I half-expected Morgan to lose, and I was never really sure about Levesque. I even called Ricciardi being a strong candidate who could have pulled it off. Chandley was out of left field. I had her at Likely D because of her strength, so I was shocked to see her lose - even to the seat's former occupant.
Most weren't winnable, but Levesque's campaigning skills in particular were very concerning. Avard, the Senator-elect, is nuts. Not even Al Baldasaro nuts. I'm talking Stella Tremblay or Marjorie Taylor Greene nuts. There's a lot of stuff out there linking Avard to the fringe right. FFS, the guy is a QAnon supporter who thought the Parkland shooting was an inside job. Any competent apparatus would have had this all over the news, and would have had this seat in the bag for 2 years. Instead, the total incompetence of the NHDP put a far-right conspiracy theorist in the seat.
Today was a disaster for Democrats in NH. Yeah, they expanded their margins and held onto NH-1, but is it really worth it when Republicans control redistricting for another 10 years? Is it really worth it when they let the conspiracy right waltz into government? Is it really worth it when Planned Parenthood funding is in danger for the first time in five years?
Where's the tradeoff?
It looks to me like Dems made a devil's bargain to get rid of Trump. They got the wave of suburban voters necessary to stop Trump's wave of rural voters, but Trump's new voters mostly voted Republican downballot out of loyalty whereas Biden's new voters disproportionately
also voted Republican because they have no loyalty to the Democratic Party besides a white hot hatred of Trump.
