I found it confusing too, but I think it means that Biden's vote share in the three categories significantly outpaces the percentage of Democratic voters, meaning that Biden is winning large chunks of Independents and some Republicans.
To simplify it further, when you break all this down it adds up to being on track for about a Biden +5 victory, which fits with the polls and by the way would be the biggest win in Florida since Bush 2004.
I may be misreading, but this seems like somewhat circular logic, as the estimates are based on a poll showing Biden +5 with registered voters. So, the Biden +5 result you get by doing the math is only really as strong as that poll, not so much the very concrete data we have on the early voting numbers from Florida.
This is a point I feel like a lot of people here are missing.
So far the Florida Republicans have done far better with in person early voting than they were predicted to by the polls. It's
possible that this is just an anomaly and the Democrats are waiting for the last minute to vote in person early but far more likely is that the polls are simply off. Particularly the ones giving crazy results like Sarasota going for Biden by 13 points.
It's not like it's worth getting worked up about even if it holds true. Biden doesn't need Florida to win.
