Lukashenka sent his thugs to terrorize random citizens and businesses and now entire factories are walking out
https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293895146073923588https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293908962970963968https://twitter.com/msvetov/status/1293892610730467334Frankly I think this is the end for him unless Putin rolls in the tanks this week, and possibly even if that happens. He had little support to begin and totally alienated a huge portion of those uninvolved with aimless terror.
For Putin this is a far trickier situation than Ukraine was. With the Ukrainians it was easy to divorce Russians and pro-Russian Donbassians from Western Ukrainians with the divisions over language and history, but Belarussians and Russians are far more similar. It's not impossible that Lukashenka falling could inspire more protests in Russia too, though of course Putin has a far higher base of support and understanding of political strategy than Lukashenka ever did.
Of course on the flip side, there's no surer way for Putin to create such protests than to send in the tanks and create a thousand videos and photos of Russian troops abusing Belarussian citizens. Again, since your average Russian can't just categorize Belarussians as fascists Putin's options are much more limited. My guess is that he'll let Lukashenka collapse (because it would take extreme violence to prop up a dictator with sub 20% support) and then find a puppet among the revolutionaries to support in the following power struggle/election.