Bachmann's Path to Victory

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I highly doubt she will win, but for the fun of it:

Bachmann wins Iowa quite strongly, making her the definitive "Tea Party" candidate over Paul or Cain. In New Hampshire she has practically no chance of winning, but she would benefit from a very weak Romney/Perry victory or, even better, a slight Ron Paul win in a divided field (caused by Romney and Perry being weakened). Then she probably loses South Carolina to Perry, but ideally gains endorsements from Cain and maybe Santorum. Romney almost certainly wins Nevada, but without much steam going into ST. If she gets incredibly lucky, Ron Paul will win New Hampshire and maybe another state or two, perform horribly somewhere, drop out and endorse her (the two are on much better terms than Paul was with any 08 opponent), resulting in considerable strength in the west.

From here, she can basically coast to victory. In the best case scenario, she has Iowa and New Hampshire in addition to momentum, meaning she doesn't need to do much to win. Otherwise, with at least Iowa as a base she can use tea party clout mixed with endorsements to win in places like New York and Georgia, which, when added to her natural strength in the midwest and southwest, would probably be sufficient (Perry would likely do best in certain southern states while Romney might do better in certain western and northeastern states and Paul might take some of the remainder depending on performance).