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  Marquette-WI- Trump +2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Marquette-WI- Trump +2  (Read 1809 times)
DrScholl
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*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« on: April 17, 2024, 02:24:01 PM »

Highly unlikely that a majority of the state wants a national abortion ban. And that wild swing with independents with barely no change in the overall topline tells me that the sample is probably too GOP and not reflective of the real race.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2024, 02:26:43 PM »

Pew in 2022 reported that 42% of all Americans felt abortion should be illegal at the end of 24 weeks

That this poll, in 2024, shows 54% of WI voters support a ban in the third trimester does not mean we have a meh sample. You will have to find other methods to unskew the result

Don't tell me what to do. Your naggy fingerwaging, old bullying man does not work for me because I'm not going to bow to you, Mr. Charlie.

I've been more right about polling this cycle than you have when I warned you that national polling was not going to remain the same for Trump when you said the race was over in January.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2024, 02:33:32 PM »

Pew in 2022 reported that 42% of all Americans felt abortion should be illegal at the end of 24 weeks

That this poll, in 2024, shows 54% of WI voters support a ban in the third trimester does not mean we have a meh sample. You will have to find other methods to unskew the result

Don't tell me what to do. Your naggy fingerwaging, old bullying man does not work for me because I'm not going to bow to you, Mr. Charlie.

I've been more right about polling this cycle than you have when I warned you that national polling was not going to remain the same for Trump when you said the race was over in January.

Lmao

Didn't you get banned for editing posts that the moderators moderated you on?
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #3 on: April 17, 2024, 03:05:21 PM »

Highly unlikely that a majority of the state wants a national abortion ban. And that wild swing with independents with barely no change in the overall topline tells me that the sample is probably too GOP and not reflective of the real race.

I find it very believable that a Midwestern state like WI, which is roughly 50-50 D/R and has a large Catholic population would support a 15-week law with exceptions. That's a broadly moderate position and (dirty little secret) wouldn't even curtail 90%+ of abortions, which mostly happen in the first 10 weeks.

If that was accurate Trump would be leading by much more in this poll. It's crap and you know it. End of debate.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #4 on: April 17, 2024, 03:34:38 PM »

Highly unlikely that a majority of the state wants a national abortion ban. And that wild swing with independents with barely no change in the overall topline tells me that the sample is probably too GOP and not reflective of the real race.

I find it very believable that a Midwestern state like WI, which is roughly 50-50 D/R and has a large Catholic population would support a 15-week law with exceptions. That's a broadly moderate position and (dirty little secret) wouldn't even curtail 90%+ of abortions, which mostly happen in the first 10 weeks.

If that was accurate Trump would be leading by much more in this poll. It's crap and you know it. End of debate.

How incredibly dense of you. If 54% of Wisconsinites support 15 weeks, that doesn't mean ALL 54% also support Trump. There are a lot of Independents and even some Democrats, many of whom identify as pro-choice, support 15 weeks. It's a reasonable compromise. The woman has full autonomy for the first 3-and-a-half months, but by 15 weeks the fetus is starting to resemble a person, has developed many vital organs, including a central nervous system, so therefore, it now has certain legal protections.

Most people can get behind that and I said, it doesn't even really curtail 90% of abortions.

It's unlikely that Biden would pick up the support of many people who want a national ban on abortion. 54% is an absurd number in a swing state. Republicans couldn't even get abortion bans passed in Kansas and Kentucky of all places.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #5 on: April 17, 2024, 10:04:48 PM »

Highly unlikely that a majority of the state wants a national abortion ban. And that wild swing with independents with barely no change in the overall topline tells me that the sample is probably too GOP and not reflective of the real race.

I find it very believable that a Midwestern state like WI, which is roughly 50-50 D/R and has a large Catholic population would support a 15-week law with exceptions. That's a broadly moderate position and (dirty little secret) wouldn't even curtail 90%+ of abortions, which mostly happen in the first 10 weeks.

If that was accurate Trump would be leading by much more in this poll. It's crap and you know it. End of debate.

How incredibly dense of you. If 54% of Wisconsinites support 15 weeks, that doesn't mean ALL 54% also support Trump. There are a lot of Independents and even some Democrats, many of whom identify as pro-choice, support 15 weeks. It's a reasonable compromise. The woman has full autonomy for the first 3-and-a-half months, but by 15 weeks the fetus is starting to resemble a person, has developed many vital organs, including a central nervous system, so therefore, it now has certain legal protections.

Most people can get behind that and I said, it doesn't even really curtail 90% of abortions.

It's unlikely that Biden would pick up the support of many people who want a national ban on abortion. 54% is an absurd number in a swing state. Republicans couldn't even get abortion bans passed in Kansas and Kentucky of all places.

15 weeks is hardly a ban. Again, 90% of all abortions occur during the first 10 weeks.

Highly unlikely that a majority of the state wants a national abortion ban. And that wild swing with independents with barely no change in the overall topline tells me that the sample is probably too GOP and not reflective of the real race.

I find it very believable that a Midwestern state like WI, which is roughly 50-50 D/R and has a large Catholic population would support a 15-week law with exceptions. That's a broadly moderate position and (dirty little secret) wouldn't even curtail 90%+ of abortions, which mostly happen in the first 10 weeks.

If that was accurate Trump would be leading by much more in this poll. It's crap and you know it. End of debate.

How incredibly dense of you. If 54% of Wisconsinites support 15 weeks, that doesn't mean ALL 54% also support Trump. There are a lot of Independents and even some Democrats, many of whom identify as pro-choice, support 15 weeks. It's a reasonable compromise. The woman has full autonomy for the first 3-and-a-half months, but by 15 weeks the fetus is starting to resemble a person, has developed many vital organs, including a central nervous system, so therefore, it now has certain legal protections.

Most people can get behind that and I said, it doesn't even really curtail 90% of abortions.

It's unlikely that Biden would pick up the support of many people who want a national ban on abortion. 54% is an absurd number in a swing state. Republicans couldn't even get abortion bans passed in Kansas and Kentucky of all places.

Allowing a women to get an abortion for the first four months of pregnancy isn't a ban, its a limit. You're entitled to your own opinion, but the majority of people don't consider four months a  ban. 6 weeks is a ban, but not four months.

When you're explaining you're losing on the issue. No one pro-choice wants to hear Republicans talking about codifying limits on abortion after Roe vs. Wade was struck down because the party isn't trustworthy on the issue. It's all about perception and Democrats are going to frame this with a mountain of ads framing it as what Republicans would actual pass: An outright ban on abortion with no exceptions and that messaging will be effective.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2024, 09:16:06 AM »

Why is it that you pro-aborts always come off as angry and unhappy? I'm in the middle on this issue, but I can objectively say the pro-life side is a lot nicer and pleasant to interact with. With the pro-abort crowd, you are dealing with some of the ugliest people in society, both inside and out. Just nasty people. And I choose to call them pro-aborts because somebody who is truly pro-choice can support a reasonable compromise. If you are for late term abortion, I really am tempted to think you are either a sociopath and/or nihilist.

Why are you Trumpsters so angry? You're going off calling me a sociopath for no reason other than I called out how framing will be everything in this race. Republicans calling for any federal restrictions on abortion is going to be framed as a ban by Democrats, period. Furthermore, men have no business trying to restrict women's rights. And there's no such thing as late term abortion. You push claims that babies are being killed after being born, but that's just not true. Sit down.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2024, 12:17:18 PM »

Only a Trump or RFK supporter would say they were a former fetus to justify an anti-abortion argue. Like I said when you are explaining you are losing on the issue. Democrats have the upper hand here.

Furthermore no woman is going to have an abortion in the 9th month just for the sake of it and no doctor would do unless it was for extreme health reasons.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #8 on: April 20, 2024, 12:02:47 PM »

That's why Redban likes RFK so much he takes votes away from Biden
The narrative that Kennedy would take more away from Trump was always delusion. He is a Kennedy, that name is inherently associated with Dems. He is also liberal on every issue that people actually care about (abortion, the economy, etc.)

He is literally running on right-wing issues and even waffled on abortion at one point. His name is irrelevant because the family hasn't endorsed him. He takes a portion of the weirdo vote from Trump . It's delusional to think RFK is a liberal.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,395
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #9 on: April 20, 2024, 02:58:23 PM »

That's why Redban likes RFK so much he takes votes away from Biden
The narrative that Kennedy would take more away from Trump was always delusion. He is a Kennedy, that name is inherently associated with Dems. He is also liberal on every issue that people actually care about (abortion, the economy, etc.)

He is literally running on right-wing issues and even waffled on abortion at one point. His name is irrelevant because the family hasn't endorsed him. He takes a portion of the weirdo vote from Trump . It's delusional to think RFK is a liberal.
No one cares that his family didn’t endorse him. He has a base of disaffected young voters and nostalgic boomers. He picked a progressive as veep and is running on liberal economic policies.
It matters if you are going to say that his name is a big deal, but now you are moving goal posts and making another argument that is poor. His VP just went off on anti-vaccination rant and her claim to fame is having an affair with Elon Musk. Give me a break, girl.
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