MD (WaPo/UMD): Hogan leads both by double digits

[DrScholl]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

[DrScholl]

Once he's tied to Trump and then has to condemn Trump which in turn hurts him with base GOP voters then he doesn't have a chance. But even without that he doesn't have a chance because the state is far too blue. I think he's counting on Alsobrooks winning the primary so he can pull the "I'm sane White man running against an angry Black woman" card.

How do you tie him to Trump though? He has pretty continuously condemned Trump, I don’t really see that line of attack working.

I do think it is surprising that the far right has rallied behind Hogan though. I would expect his right flank is soft and may not turn out for him.

Obviously no one ever went broke betting on partisanship to carry the day. I do think this is Likely D, but the DSCC will need to spend serious money here to hold what should be a safe seat.

It would be to make him have to focus a lot on being anti-Trump and therefore put off Trump voters enough so they skip the race. Furthermore it can be argued that he would support most of Trump's agenda, supreme court nominees included based on Republicans rallying around Trump once they are elected.

[DrScholl]

There aren't many voters in Maryland who think they need a "check" on Biden. Certainly not enough to overcome Biden winning the state by 30%. Hogan is already waffling on abortion saying "I won't answer that" and being very evasive. The closer to the election it gets that attitude isn't going to fly with Democratic voters.