Iowa GOP Caucus (January 15) Megathread - Predictions, Turnout, Results, Etc.

[DrScholl]

It would be so hilarious if Fatty came in under 50%.

[DrScholl]

It would be so hilarious if Fatty came in under 50%.

Why? He won in a landslide. What difference does it really make?

Because he wanted to win by more than that and anything that upsets him is hilarious.

[DrScholl]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

It's amazing how Republicans who complained about a dynasty when Hillary Clinton ran for President are now pushing for a wife to succeed her husband in office. Really it would just be a sneaky way for DeSantis to avoid term limits.

[DrScholl]

It's OVER for GOP enthusiasm

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1747079618878730535

I'm guessing the weather had something to do with that.

It also wasn't a competitive race...

But Trump is supposed to be the most popular candidate in history! Shouldn't he have driven turnout to higher levels? Unless the overhype wasn't true...

[DrScholl]

Sore loser

https://twitter.com/brianneDMR/status/1747078172250620013

Based on this statement, doesn't seem like Desantis will endorse Trump anytime soon.

DeSantis does not really need to endorse Trump given his political career is pretty much finished if these results hold . Would be much easier to cash out as some anti Trump GOP if thats the case.

Now if Casey wants to run for Governor in 2026, thats a different story and I will say that if he does endorse Trump then its a sign Casey is gonna run for Governor(the earlier the endorsement, the bigger the sign)

How is Casey qualified to be Governor?

I mean Casey has been Ron's defacto Chief of Staff(some even say they are basically Co Governors) and also if she has political ambitions its not hard to see her try to become governor in 2026.

Not to be too 'woke' here and I'm sure you're not the first one to start this, but could we please refer to her as Casey DeSantis? I'm sure nobody here is on a first name basis with her.  Also, I didn't know who 'Casey' was at first.

It doesn't matter.

[DrScholl]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Because the general election is tomorrow and not months from now.

[DrScholl]

Pollsters continuing their good run of accuracy.. ominous for Biden.

Not really.  The election is months away.  Of course caucus/primary polling for a contest that's upcoming will be more accurate.

Many individuals on here are suggesting that the current numbers are fiction.

Yes, it is obvious at least that Trump would win if the election were held today, and the people you're referring to need to wake up to that reality. We can argue about how bad a sign it is for Biden in November, but it's not GOOD at the least.

That's a strawman argument though.  Most would readily concede Biden would lose if the election were held today.  The argument is just that it is not held today, and Biden has months to turn it around.  He may or may not actually do so.

Even that is a weak assumption. This race is totally based on turnout and there are a number of softer Biden supporters who won't plug in until it's time to vote. There is polling that suggests that a lot of people don't even think Trump will be the nominee which is contrary to what the reality of the primary is so there are plenty of people not tuned in.

[DrScholl]

Dems have confirmed that Iowa won't be anywhere near the front of the line in '28, right?

Iowa is on Super Tuesday this year so I have to assume it will vote then in 2028.

[DrScholl]

Sums it up nicely:

https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1747070602089832479

It is worth wondering if going in on Trump over the indictments would have actually made this race more competitive. 52% is a fairly tepid number that could have been driven down had some of these candidates made a case against him.

[DrScholl]

Sums it up nicely:

https://twitter.com/BrendanBuck/status/1747070602089832479

It is worth wondering if going in on Trump over the indictments would have actually made this race more competitive. 52% is a fairly tepid number that could have been driven down had some of these candidates made a case against him.

But if they did that, their voters would threaten to kill them.

Fortune favors the brave. If you don't try you don't win. Of course since a lot of those crazy people are serious the concern was well warranted.

[DrScholl]

Wow, Trump sounds very pleasant actually. Almost...presidential. Graceful, congratulating his opponents and speaking in support of his wife. Is this him turning the page?

He just got what he wanted. Wait until something else doesn't go his way until you start talking about him turning a page (which will never happen).

[DrScholl]

Vivek endorsed Trump

Watch Trump give Vivek the job of Ambassador to India.

Um, winning the caucus doesn't mean Trump is President now lol. The general election is still on and he has to win it to be able to appoint anyone to anything.

[DrScholl]

Trump was playing the Phantom of the Opera theme at his watch party, lol. I always wonder how the coal miners and corn farmers in his crowds interpret his love for lavish Broadway musicals, celebrity gossip, fashion, and "big beautiful boys." He truly missed his calling as a sassy elderly gay man.

What the hell was that all about?" Trump said. "We've got enough problems with South Korea with trade. On top of that, they give them best movie of the year. Was it good? I don't know."

….

The audience booed when Trump mentioned the Academy Awards and then cheered when he said: "Can we get like ''Gone with the Wind' back please? 'Sunset Boulevard,' so many great movies."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/arts/trump-disparages-parasites-oscar-win

Not really surprising he'd like a movie about a delusional woman who refuses to believe that her time has passed and eventually shoots a man.

[DrScholl]

Caveats with the weather, turnout was still abysmal. Going from 186k to 110k in 2016 vs today is just awful no matter which way you slice it, especially given the insane amount of money spent in IA by everyone together.

Not just that, but Trump won yes, but given his alleged "strong" operation and cult leader status, the fact that only 55k people caucused for him in that state is... not that great.

What kind of logic is that? Winning by +30 points is not great?

+30 is paper tiger against multiple candidates. He won by 2% against a collective non-Trump vote. There was definitely a lack of enthusiasm in the caucus.