If anything, he's going to be the DeSantis of 2022. The guy everybody expects to lose but ends up winning.
People conveniently forget now, but DeSantis was similarly cast as unelectable, super "pro Trump" and far-right. And the vast majority of people here bought into that, including Republicans. Hell, he's still characterized like that today, it's just that Democrats have become more pessimistic in Florida so they don't think he'll lose. But it's really important to remember accurately because we're now making the same exact mistakes and assumptions today, only with more drama around election administration. Shapiro is probably a better candidate than Gillum, though, but nobody was talking as if Gillum was the bad candidate in 2018. It was all about how extreme and bad DeSantis was.
DeSantis didn't run as a total nutcase like Mastriano is. Mastriano just promised to decertify the 2024 election and was present at the insurrection. Besides, Pennsylvania is not Florida.