Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[DrScholl]

IMO it doesn't matter who controls the Senate.

The Democrats Dream that they can do "New Green Deal" "Court Packing" "D. C. & PR Statehood" "Ending Filibuster" pass "Heroes Act" are non existent with a 50-50 Senate and a best-case scenario 224-211 House.

Just not going to happen! Biden needed a bigger Congressional Margin to do that (Obama 2009).

Court packing and green new deal won't happen and I dont know what the heroes act is but we are definitely passing PR and DC statehood and ending the filibuster of we win the senate

Manchin already said he won't support ending the filibuster EVEN if Democrats take the Senate. Manchin wouldn't support PR & D.C. Statehood either! Dianne Feinstein also came out against ending the filibuster!

Manchin will NOT stand in the way of DC statehood, and it's absurd to suggest that he would see no problem with Americans being locked out of representation on partisan grounds.

If Warnock and Ossoff win, the only question is whether Douglass is admitted in January or February.

Democrats would need to end the filibuster in the Senate to pass D. C. Statehood House Bill. You need 60 Votes for that and both Manchin & Feinstein said that they won't end it so what are you smoking here.

Trump lost. Get over it. You've traded an unhealthy confidence over a cult leader winning for an unhealthy obsession with the filibuster.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1335396015277568000?s=21

Had it been a Kelly Loeffler only rally there would have been no one there at all. She is not a compelling candidate at all.

[DrScholl]

She rehearsed all these lines and is just reciting them with no feeling.

[DrScholl]

>asked how she reaches out to minority communities
>talks about school choice

This is how most Republicans respond to questions about minority communities. It's the go to answer.

[DrScholl]

She clearly has never picked up a bible, but she insists on arguing with a Reverend about what a verse mean. The voters that she needs are less religious anyway and are the type that only attend church on Christmas or when Amy Grant shows up to do a concert. They aren't that caught up on verses.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/rweingarten/status/1341007236898959369

[DrScholl]

Given that each Democratic candidate has raised >$100M and in-person Election Day voting is expected to be heavilty Republican, would it make sense for the campaigns to hire a few thousand people to just drive around Republican areas on Election Day causing traffic jams to discourage people from voting?  

I’d have to think this would be a better use of money than more mailers.

Not like that would be a felony punishable by 1-10 years in prison & a fine of $100,000 or anything.

What exactly would the crime be?  I’m not suggesting they get into accidents or anything.  Just get on the highway at rush hour and drive kinda slow.

Republicans have been doing everything they can to impede early and mail in voting all year.  It’s time the Dems fought back.

A campaign paying for that would be voter suppression.

[DrScholl]

The economy needs money flowing into through spending. Even if not everyone receiving a check has lost income it is good for the economy for those people to spend money too. This "you need to earn it" moralizing needs to end. I'm not saying that no one should work, just that the finger wagging lectures are tiresome.

[DrScholl]

No way to really know, but I can't help but wonder if "paint Warnock as a scary Black Marxist Radical" as the primary GOP strategy in both runoffs might actually have ended up hurting Purdue and Loeffler more than its helping-- and regardless of the end result, could be driving up black turnout on the margins beyond what it would be otherwise.

It probably did. Making a Black person into a scary, dangerous threat is something Black people have seen for years and are tired of. That alone is enough to drive up Black turnout.

Yea because the suburbs have historically been turned off by accusing people of Marxism

Lol

In this case it isn't true so it would put some voters off. No one with any common sense is going to actually believe that Warnock is a Marxist. Loeffler looks crazy for saying that.

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/ryanlcooper/status/1344767506465091585

[DrScholl]

If Warnock wins, Me Too is officially dead, right?

No, all it means is that Kelly Loeffler's political career is over.

[DrScholl]

The fact that Loeffler took a picture with another known white supremacist makes the claim that she didn't know questionable. I think she knows that she needs fringe turnout to win.

[DrScholl]

Since a lot of Atlas Liberals bragging about the GA Early Vote Totals I thought I compare the GA Senate Runoff Vote to the 2018 Governor Race when Kemp narrowly beat Abrams.

2018 Govenor Race
Total Vote: 3,939,409

Electorate

GENDER
Female  54 %
Male  46 %

AGE
18-24  9 %
30-39  15 %
40-49  19 %
50-64  29 %
65+  22 %

RACE
White  60 %
Black  30 %
Hispanic (Latino)  5 %
Asian  2 %
Other  3 %

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/georgia

2021 Senate Runoffs
Total Vote to date: 3,001,017

GENDER
Female -

Male -

AGE
18-24  7.3 %
25-34  10.1 %
35-44  12.8 %
45-55  17.7 %
56-65  21.3 %
66+  30.8

RACE
White  55.8 %
Black  30.8 %
Hispanic (Latino)  2.2 %
Asian  2.4 %
Other  8.5 %

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

You're going to say Perdue and Loeffler are going to win no matter what.

[DrScholl]

Signs are pointing to a narrow Perdue & Loeffler Win. While the AA Vote is on par to match the 2018 GA Governor Race the Electorate seems a lot older on Tuesday compared to 2018 which should help Republicans unless older Voters have completely changed their Voting pattern.

We need race/age crosstabs. There's no way to tell which older voters are turning out.

This. Old doesn't equal GOP and young doesn't equal Democrat.

I would much rather a 68 year old Black woman turn out than a 22 year old white man who doesn't care about the election now that Trump isn't on the ballot but would absolutely vote Perdue/Loeffler if he did go vote.

This is sooo wrong from you! Younger Voters trend to vote more Democratic. That is uniformly confirmed in all 50 States. Older Voters trend to be voting more Republican and are also of less colour and White.

Ossoff and Warnock still need between 30-32 % of the White Vote to win the Election and they ain't going to get that.

Biden won this state. That is the key thing to remember before proclaiming the Ossoff and Warnock will lose. This is a base election for the most part.

[DrScholl]

The person who took the Perdue picture is black, and is demanding Judd legum take down the tweet or legal action will be taken. Judd legum completely made up the story

The posting of the picture likely falls under fair use so taking legal action would be hard. Second, that's a really weird way of signifying 300 and sounds like an explanation created after the fact. Lastly, some Native Americans identify as white and plenty of black conservatives overlook or subscribe to racism, so the race of those in the picture or of who took it is irrelevant.

[DrScholl]

It really is tiresome how some people try to play everyone for a fool.

[DrScholl]

I'm sorry, but does Loeffler's campaign outfits irritate anyone else?

They are extremely tacky and they make her clearly come off as a rich person trying to be rural or working class.

[DrScholl]

Can't wait til our new Senate Majority this week and Biden confirmation as Prez, we are on the verge of a Trifecta that we should of won in Nov

it would be the smallest working trifecta in american history.

for your own sanity, please temper your expectations about what you will accomplish.

barack obama had 60 (60!) dem senators in 2009 and 2010 and there was still drama and roadbumps.

you will not be passing divisive ideological big ticket items with a 5 person house majority and a 51-50 senate. you just won't.

you will get judges, infrastructure, and maybe certain tax increases.

in fact, the 5 vote majority in the house may be even more of an issue than joe manchin. Not hard at all to find 5 house dems who represent wealthy business districts who will oppose tax increases.  

a double digit number of republicans opposed the TCJA because it repealed SALT deductions.

why wouldn't at least a few house dems from wealthy districts be spooked about pissing off some constituents?

Your right, it would be a tight trifecta

But this isn't 2009

The stimulus in 2009 was like venom to GOP. This year the GOP led congress passed 4 stimulus bills, all larger than the one in 2009. With stuff like checks and welfare which would have been unthinkable ten years ago.

And I think every senate Democrat, even Manchin, is on record to support a public option unlike 2009.

I think tax increases are unlikely, Biden doesn't want to stall growth. But I expect budgets with lots of education, welfare, and infrastructure funding like what they should have done back in 2009.

Those items you mentioned are plausible, yes

I think what he meant was your not seeing crazy things like making DC, and Puerto Rico states as well as packing the court, or making sure changes to the immigration system. Items that are not moderate items by any means and would require getting rid of the filibuster

How is Puerto Rican statehood a radical or "crazy" thing?

Probably because it doesn't fit the image of a state that some people think state shhould have (it's not Midwestern, it's heavily Hispanic, etc.)

[DrScholl]

Bad news for the GOP

The The Wall Street Journal just reported that the Georgia Secretary of State says Election Day turnout is light so far....

Interesting, I’ve heard that Fulton county has an average wait time of 0 while Northwest Georgia, which was lagging in EV, is pretty heavy in turnout. I also heard a lot of the Republican leaning suburbs such as Cherokee also have long lines. Maybe Democrats cannibalized their vote?

Did you really hear that? Be truthful.

[DrScholl]

Bad news for the GOP

The The Wall Street Journal just reported that the Georgia Secretary of State says Election Day turnout is light so far....

Interesting, I’ve heard that Fulton county has an average wait time of 0 while Northwest Georgia, which was lagging in EV, is pretty heavy in turnout. I also heard a lot of the Republican leaning suburbs such as Cherokee also have long lines. Maybe Democrats cannibalized their vote?

Did you really hear that? Be truthful.

Yes.

Where did you hear this information though?

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/Eggymceggerson3/status/1346513722697773057

[DrScholl]

Atlanta filmmaker Tyler Perry requested an absentee ballot on Dec. 2, it was reported mailed on Dec. 4, but never arrived.  So he hopped on a plane to come home and vote in person.

He posted on Facebook yesterday morning about not getting his ballot. He has a lot name recognition with the Black community so he could definitely encourage some last minute turnout among Black voters who haven't voted yet.

[DrScholl]

^^

Eggymceggerson- GASen Warnock/Ossoff LETS GOOOO
@Eggymceggerson3

Lifelong Democrat. Fierce partisan hack. Anti-fascist and anti-populist. Data analyst and center left sh**tposter. Not always in that order. He/Him

Definitely a reliable source right here.

The numbers come from the elections director of Spaulding County. Seems reliable to me.

https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1346511208195772425

[DrScholl]

At what time (ET) do polls close? And when should we expect the first results to be released?

7 PM ET

[DrScholl]

Georgia will find a way to make the counting slow, trust me.

Have to find those extra ballots to put Warnock/Ossoff just over the top.

You clearly don't like Democrats, so why did you send me this?



lol