Iowa Caucus Results Thread (pg 148 - full results)

[DrScholl]

Judging from the sound of that caucus Sanders has probably already won big and probably will be over 50% at the end of the night. The nomination fight is probably over tonight and the rest of the process is just a formality. Congratulations, Sanders supporters.

[DrScholl]

A primary and vote by mail would solve the problem of people who work not having time to caucus. We really need all primaries and vote by mail everywhere (of course vote by mail would have to be approved by states, which is not likely in some GOP states).

[DrScholl]

Port Charlotte Satellite Caucus First Alignment results

Klobuchar 48
Buttigieg 38
Biden 33
Warren 12
Steyer 2
Sanders 1
Yang 1

Was this caucus literally held in a nursing home or something?

It sure looked like it.

I think it was a Unitarian Universalist church.

Seems like Bernie country, then.

That is a liberal church, but then again the definition of liberal can vary from place to place.

[DrScholl]

Now is probably a good time to remember that Biden's previous runs for President went nowhere. Seems like he doesn't have much luck running for President.

[DrScholl]

If Klobuchar does much better than expected tonight then all of the pollsters are going to look really silly. It's early, but these good performances in satellite locations are interesting.

[DrScholl]

I apologize if this has already been posted here, but:

https://twitter.com/ofnoimport/status/1224464814841319424

Sanders managed to lose one vote in the allignment and not gaining any votes from Warren lol

When all is said and done, I'm not so sure that there will be much overlap between Sanders and Warren supporters. Warren's support is not monolithic despite her policy positions.

[DrScholl]

Trying to figure why Trump supporters think this mess is beneficial to Trump. By November no one will remember this.

[DrScholl]

All this could have been avoided with a primary.

[DrScholl]

Iowa has too small of a Hispanic community to get a good sample from and extrapolate anything about how a large state like California will vote. If how the Central Valley and Imperial County voted in 2016 are any indicator, then it means that the Hispanic vote in California leans more moderate.

[DrScholl]

If Buttigieg holds on to this lead, then he can fundraise and energize his supporters off of this. Nothing is as campaign boosting as defying polling and being a surprise winner.

[DrScholl]

Or perhaps there just isn't much enthusiasm in this primary period. No one in this race is particularly exciting or inspiring to the electorate as a whole.

[DrScholl]

Democrats flipped the Iowa House delegation from 3-1 Republican to 3-1 Democratic and they hold majority registration in 3 out of 4 congressional districts. It's a mistake to write Democrats off here just yet. Iowa won't be a tipping point, but if the presidency flips then Iowa could be one of the states that flips.

[DrScholl]

Democrats flipped the Iowa House delegation from 3-1 Republican to 3-1 Democratic and they hold majority registration in 3 out of 4 congressional districts. It's a mistake to write Democrats off here just yet. Iowa won't be a tipping point, but if the presidency flips then Iowa could be one of the states that flips.

1) Notice how you focus on the House delegation but totally ignore the statewide races like the Governors race. What we are talking about here is winning the state of IA, not winning some CDs. Yes, some CDs are more competitive than the state as a whole, but that is because of the way the CDs are currently drawn (with IA-04 being a R vote sink).

2) If voter registration were so significant, then Democrats would be winning West Virginia.

Blah, blah, blah, blah. If we want to talk statewide races, Democrats actually did flip a constitutional office in 2018. Iowa is quite different than West Virginia, because the ancestral Democratic factor is mostly absent. Democratic registration in West Virginia has clearly declined, whereas Democrats have added votes in Iowa. House races are federal like the presidency, so they are quite relevant to mention. But I'm not going to argue back and forth with you.