Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

Barack Obama was correct: in the 1980s, what Mitt Romney said was accurate but, in 2012, China had cleared usurped the role that Russia once had when it was the USSR. Whether or not he explicitly invoked China is besides the point - Russia is only a regional power. Its post-imperial ambitions, however dangerous they might be to Europe, are basically limited to areas of Eurasia in close proximity to Russia. There is no Soviet-era desire to spread "world communism" or anything similar. Mitt Romney was playing on fears from this past era, not providing cogent analysis.

Even now, the intensity of the US response is partially driven by the desire to create a "penal code"/"grim trigger" to ward off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One country is actually our rival, the other is a rogue state of regional importance.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Mitt Romney was wrong in 2012, he remains wrong in 2022. China is clearly the biggest geopolitical foe and threat to the United States, whereas Russia is a regional threat to Europe, it is basically a negligible threat to the US itself.

Stated different, was Mitt Romney prescient in repeating old adages rooted in elderly nostalgia for Ronald Reagan and the Cold War Era? No, of course not, he was just appealing to dementia-ridden geezers in nursing homes who forgot that the Berlin Wall fell some 20 years before.

No. You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. China is a big threat to the U.S., there's a difference between that and what Obama said.

Barack Obama was correct: in the 1980s, what Mitt Romney said was accurate but, in 2012, China had cleared usurped the role that Russia once had when it was the USSR. Whether or not he explicitly invoked China is besides the point - Russia is only a regional power. Its post-imperial ambitions, however dangerous they might be to Europe, are basically limited to areas of Eurasia in close proximity to Russia. There is no Soviet-era desire to spread "world communism" or anything similar. Mitt Romney was playing on fears from this past era, not providing cogent analysis.

Even now, the intensity of the US response is partially driven by the desire to create a "penal code"/"grim trigger" to ward off a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. One country is actually our rival, the other is a rogue state of regional importance.

You're letting your political biases inform your thinking. That rogue state of regional importance has just created the largest war in Europe in 75 years and our country is tied by treaty into defending the sovereignty of most of the states of Europe.

Yes, yes - Russia is of regional importance. It poses a tremendous threat to Europe. The United States, of course, is separated from Europe by an ocean and is forced by its unique status as hegemon to be concerned about the world, not just one part of it. We are challenged by China, which vies for supremacy everywhere. Russia is chiefly concerned about its ability to pull various European countries into its orbit. As far as I can tell, there are no serious efforts to win power and influence in Africa or Latin America etc.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

S&P 500 now up 0.7 on the day !!!  I guess the fear of something bad is always worse than that bad thing itself.

I am pretty sure that you have no idea what you are talking about. You've been wrong about Putin's aims and ambitions in Ukraine, you failed to predict this invasion and now you're making pronouncements about "fear of something bad" being worse than "the bad thing" before we even understand the full extent of this war, its meaning, its length, duration, the effect of sanctions etc. The wise thing to do would be to listen and learn from people who aren't fools.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496861025194418179?cxt=HHwWhoC5...

Russia should be kicked out of all international organizations. A complete and total boycott and quarantine. His regime needs to be bankrupted, even at the cost of some economic pain for the West.

Sadly this seems to be why the west can’t respond properly to either Russia or China . We are so addicted with low prices that it hampers our ability to respond.

Would also help if we'd spent the past year expanding production instead of constricting it. Biden's foreign policy has been good but his domestic policy is a disaster across the board and this is an example.

This is a huge example :


https://mobile.twitter.com/DanCrenshawTX/status/1496579280091951111?cxt=HHwWjsC5...

Dan Crenshaw doesn't understand how energy markets work. It's entirely irrelevant whether or not the US imports 0 barrels of Russian oil or 1 million barrels of oil if there is a global market in trade of a product: markets clear and prices regulate allocation of oil supplies from country to country. In the grand scheme of things, Keystone XL would have an utterly negligible effect on global oil production and this determines the price paid at the pump.

Also, ironically, Keystone XL would be, on net, bad for the very oil fields in Crenshaw's home state. Of course, he represents a city with a reputation for refining oil so his stance isn't incoherent but there is something strange about the idea of American oil and gas workers cheering for a pipeline that would primarily benefit Newfie migrants in Fort McMurray, Alberta...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's the clear reality and the truth at this point. Kiev is under siege, 1.5 days into the offensive, and Zelensky sued for peace publicly. Asking for an armistice with enemy troops on your land is not an action to take when winning, Finland still lost territory from the Winter War despite performing much better than expectations. I get that you're cheerleading for a side here but reality doesn't care about that.

Firstly, the capital being under direct threat in the second day of the invasion of a large country sounds impressive at first, very impressive, right up until you look at a map and notice where Kiev actually is. It is highly exposed to any aggressive push from the north and borderline indefensible from that direction as well.

Secondly, no one serious is saying that the Ukrainian army is winning. What has been noticed, and not just here and not just on twitter, is that they have held up a lot better than expected. People have also been surprised at the Russian attack plan with so many independent thrusts on so many different fronts, something that smacks of the sort of incompetence driven by excessive political interference in military decisions. It is still overwhelmingly likely that the Russian military 'wins' due to the substantial imbalance in the size of forces and also resources involved, but it is plainly not going to plan, and this is an important and relevant thing to note.

Finally, your sneering is unpleasant and reflects poorly on your character.

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

We are all grateful and appreciative of the sagacious military advice you have offered Ukraine, which is based on decades of doctrinal study of Clausewitz, Jomini and other greats - thank you computer!

In all seriousness, this has to be one of the dumbest posts I've read on the forum in some time. Ukraine's physical geography is poorly suited for defensive wars - it's basically as flat as a pancake, perfect terrain for swift armor advances. It would be an unmitigated disaster for Ukraine to attempt to mount a defensive line in the middle of nowhere, which is why ferocious fighting is taking place inside of small cities and on natural defensive lines, like the Dnieper, while Ukraine gives ground elsewhere. To be blunt, insofar as Ukraine can win this war, it will be by baiting Russia into a costly, piecemeal assault on Kiev that is rushed and poorly planned while Ukraine slowly but surely entrenches the city, turning it into a slaughterhouse.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'm aware of the geography and that Kiev is highly vulnerable to an attack from Belarus. However this should have also been obvious to the Ukrainian military who could have been preparing defenses in depth between the border and Kiev, which they either didn't do or did a very poor job. Whether it's impressive or not, Zelensky is now under threat himself and that's what probably forced him to ask for an armistice. It's definitely not at all comparable to the Winter War, which saw the Finns repel multiple Soviet attacks and keep the Soviets off their land for 3 months and had a 5-1 casualty ratio. I think there has been a moving of goalposts by the West where the Russians are expected to win instantly and anything short of that is a disappointment, despite the situation on the ground where Ukraine will likely still lose within a week.

If you were truly aware of the geography you might note that in between Kiev and the border is the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone and I'm not sure if the Ukrainian government or military would have been particularly keen to dig in and create trenches, redoubts and strong-points there for certain fairly obvious reasons. They could perhaps have done more further south, but the open geography would immediately make that difficult - there's not much point in creating strong defences that are easy simply wheel around and bypass.

In general, of course, you are not being honest here and I suspect there is little point in further engagement.

Apparently one reason for the increase in measured radiation around Pripyat is that heavy artillery and armor moved around the topsoil. Imagine what could happen if there was a bombardment of the area and serious fortifications being built - yikes!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1497232931940667396

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

Most posters on the forum would be shocked to discover that Cori Bush is reflecting "normie" Black Democrat opinions here, which by and large will be "what is Russia doing to me? Biden should focus on getting gas prices down". Cori Bush is framing her opposition to sanctions in social justice but she is, more or less, reflecting the wishes of her constituents here.

I must add that there is something unsettling about comfortable Americans LARPing and pretending to be military strategists while cheering for their team. When you wish for Russia and Russians to be punished, you are wishing for thousands of people to be sent to their graves. When you support sanctions, you are supporting millions of Russian children being pushed into poverty. Whether or not these policies are justified is less important to me than the cavalier and disgraceful tone of the community right now: this isn't a game guys.

Edit: I am guilty of behaving like an armchair military strategist myself. I have become a heartless cynic without much humanity or soul, which makes me view these events solely in terms of making forecasts. I would far prefer it if I simply felt horrible about all of the lives that will be lost, all of the hard work destroyed by Russian bombs etc. I would like to feel emotionally affected by this to simply log-off. This would be a human reaction.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

CCP shill very sad that mother Russia being destroyed by Ukraine.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

CCP shill very sad that mother Russia being destroyed by Ukraine.

You wouldn't say that if say Afghan civilians were uploading videos of American troop movements on Twitter, you'd call for Twitter to delete the posts immediately and possibly for the army to find and punish said Afghans.

Yes, yes, of course, I am an American, not a bloodthirsty murderer who supports genocide and barbarism.

Edit: wait, no, I actually wouldn't want to the Army to punish Afghan civilians??? Somehow I just glossed over this despicable sentiment - you are a sicko.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I can't believe I have to say this: please stop posting Marco Rubio tweets into this thread as if he's a credible analyst or commentator. He's a political operator who played a significant role in trying to orchestrate a failed plot to remove Maduro in Venezuela. As part of this, he routinely bluffed and lied, acting as a propagandist along the way. Your instinct should be to see anything he has to say as serving some kind of political purpose. If one isn't a bloodthirsty hawk, your instinct should be to see his political purpose as adding a giant section to Arlington cemetery.

More generally, I encourage just about everyone on here to reflect more about the consequences of significantly ratcheting up tensions further in Ukraine. Would you actually be willing to commit your country's soldiers into this conflict even if that risked potential escalation to using nuclear weapons? Even if that chance was remote, it should make you pause. Even if that chance were nonexistent, would you feel comfortable suffering an actual energy crisis where all natural gas exports from Russia were stopped? Would you feel comfortable with the threat of severe and crippling cyberattacks?

Basically, a lot of the cavalier attitudes that I am seeing here strike me as being utterly irrational, foolish and sometimes unhinged. They disturb me because they reflect the public's mood and, lord knows, maybe with one unfortunate perturbation, some freak accident, we could actually be pulled into this war. At heart, just about none of you should want that. And you should be cautious of politicians who are willing to use soldiers as cannon fodder to advance their political careers. The loss of this skepticism is a terrible thing - cling to it. Never forget what they've done in the past.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Some Russians sharing their views. Some of these surprised me. 2.5 minutes long.

Some of the Russians are clearly opposed but pretending as if they are not, like the one middle-aged woman saying "I don't want this, it will cause unemployment and inflation. It probably has to be done though [please don't fire me, I support party line]." Then there are the brainwashed fools.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Biden's comments were made at a fundraiser and were clearly "off the cuff" remarks. Also, I feel obligated to add that everyone who followed the run-up to the invasion knows that he is correct and won't be gaslit by Ukraine's actor President trying to find cover. It certainly surprises me that he receives fawning adoration among posters who aren't idiots.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

People in the developing world don't care about this war.