Temperature in Portland to potentially go over 110 degrees in place where many still don’t have AC

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

For reference ~70 thousand people died in Europe in the 2003 heatwave. While a death rate this severe in the Northwest is unfathomable given that air conditioning is more common, it's worth mentioning that homes in France are designed to release heat, whereas homes in the NW are designed to retain heat. It's also worth mentioning that temperatures in Seattle and Portland will be ~10 degrees hotter. It's also worth mentioning that the heat index will be a massive problem - dew points are hovering between 65 and 75 degrees depending on the weather station, which amounts to sultry, sticky and gross conditions.

Last and most important, I do not think that it's "dooming" to mention the risk of widespread power failure. While utilities are currently saying that they are prepared for this, no one should take this language seriously: this weather event would be deemed "impossible" by any normal public authority/institution. While utilities are well-prepared for extreme heatwaves, this preparation is for a heatwave where it reaches ~100-104 degrees in Seattle, maybe 110 in Portland, not one where it could reach ~110 in Seattle and 115-120 in Portland (latter numbers are from the GFS). As we saw in Texas in February, when a weather event occurs that is seen to be "impossible" and meteorologists have a hard time believing what models are saying, the odds are close to certain that institutions at all levels are woefully unprepared.

As a side-note: the public is unprepared for this. No one in Seattle or Portland knows what 110 degrees feels like unless they lived in Phoenix. Certainly, no one there knows what these temperatures feel like without AC. It's beyond the realm of experience. Do I think some people will die because they foolishly treat this like an ordinary heatwave? Yes, absolutely. This event is so extreme that people should allow elderly strangers to stay at their house if their home has AC.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I can throw out there that I grew up in a house without AC in Seattle. At one point my parents bought an AC, but it broke, and there was never really any need to replace it. We just used fans that one or two weeks out of the year when it was hot. Although my parents did later get an AC for their bedroom last year.

I think for most people, it's just a basic cost/risk calculation. What are the chances in any given year that it'll be too hot for me to just use a fan? Pretty slim most years, and probably not enough to warrant investing in a new AC if you don't already have one.

I'm not trying to pick on crumpets but this mentality is emblematic of thinking in the wider Northwest outside of maybe the Tri-Cities and, sadly, this mentality is what kills people during extreme heatwaves. As an example, my parents' AC conked out and my Dad didn't want to pay to fix it so he just paid for portable AC, which my parents used for 2-3 years before there was a megaheatwave in 2015 where the temperature cracked 103 with 75 as a low in late June (hm, almost as if this is becoming normal or something?) and the house got up to ~85-90. This was stupid because repairing the AC wasn't even expensive.

Basically, people in the Northwest are complacent and backward-looking, basing their expectation of summer weather based on weather patterns from the 1980s or 1990s, not the 2010s. I think everyone in Seattle and Portland should have AC. I suffered through multiple triple digit heat days in Portland in 2013. It seems like these occur every summer there these days.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

For reference ~70 thousand people died in Europe in the 2003 heatwave. While a death rate this severe in the Northwest is unfathomable given that air conditioning is more common, it's worth mentioning that homes in France are designed to release heat, whereas homes in the NW are designed to retain heat. It's also worth mentioning that temperatures in Seattle and Portland will be ~10 degrees hotter. It's also worth mentioning that the heat index will be a massive problem - dew points are hovering between 65 and 75 degrees depending on the weather station, which amounts to sultry, sticky and gross conditions.

Last and most important, I do not think that it's "dooming" to mention the risk of widespread power failure. While utilities are currently saying that they are prepared for this, no one should take this language seriously: this weather event would be deemed "impossible" by any normal public authority/institution. While utilities are well-prepared for extreme heatwaves, this preparation is for a heatwave where it reaches ~100-104 degrees in Seattle, maybe 110 in Portland, not one where it could reach ~110 in Seattle and 115-120 in Portland (latter numbers are from the GFS). As we saw in Texas in February, when a weather event occurs that is seen to be "impossible" and meteorologists have a hard time believing what models are saying, the odds are close to certain that institutions at all levels are woefully unprepared.

As a side-note: the public is unprepared for this. No one in Seattle or Portland knows what 110 degrees feels like unless they lived in Phoenix. Certainly, no one there knows what these temperatures feel like without AC. It's beyond the realm of experience. Do I think some people will die because they foolishly treat this like an ordinary heatwave? Yes, absolutely. This event is so extreme that people should allow elderly strangers to stay at their house if their home has AC.

Is that really true about the heat index? That's generally a result of humidity. The forecast I saw for Portland shows 115F for both Sunday and Monday, but 73F as the low. That reminds me of the dry heat of the Central Valley of California, although never getting quite that high of course. Generally large temperature differentials between day and night are the result of a dry heat. Humidity has a tendency to trap in the heat and keep it warm overnight.

It's not entirely true that this is unheard of for the Pacific NW. I have an aunt that lives near Olympia and it's broken into the triple digits a few times over the years. Everyone should at least have one window AC unit in their home.

In a word: yes. I have seen vague murmurings about this online, that this won't exactly be a "dry heat" in the classic sense, but it seems that readings at weather stations today are stripping past what was expected (?) such that the NWS station in Seattle is tweeting about it. I have also seen BC meteorologists tweeting about the "Humidex", which is their version of the heat index, so there was some indication this would happen. I have to imagine a 70 degree dew point was not forecast though - that is actually muggy.

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle/status/1408854968119947264?s=20

No, this is totally unheard of in the Pacific NW. It boggles my mind that people are casually conflating the triple digit heat that a city like Olympia or Seattle sees every few years with the forecasted high temperatures of 110-115 (110 in SeaTac will imply hotter weather in Tacoma and Olympia). Please stop doing this, the latter is not normal and no one knows what that is like here! A quote from a respected weather blogger about the latest GFS forecast:

Honestly, the upper-level pattern and mesoscale details are so insane I don't know if this can be entirely discounted. The 121 in Tacoma strains credulity even under these circumstances, but 118 in Portland and 111 in Seattle may actually be achievable.

To be clear, if he is saying that 118 is possible in Portland, well, something closer to that than 110 is very possible in Tacoma imo. One thing that we know is that some models are not only consistently predicting outlandish highs, models are converging on this so you cannot discount it easily.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

These forecasted Fraser Valley (Vancouver area community of Abbotsford and surrounds) dew points are dangerous given the temperatures forecast for these areas. I'd go so far as to say that the dew point issue is what could tip this over into being a catastrophe - dew point of 70+ with a forecast high of ~110-115 results in a heat index of *checks notes* 130 degrees farenheit. Sadly, dew point in Abbotsford is currently 70 degrees or so - hard to discount this model prediction if it is already happening even as temperatures are shooting over 100 degrees there...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

An interesting and illustrative comment that I saw on reddit:

I work in building design, construction, and operations, and these extreme temperatures are concerning because even buildings with air conditioning are in peril. Under the building code, building AC systems only have to be designed to the 97.5% summer design temperature, which for Vancouver is 29C. That means that only 2.5% of the time, is the temperature above that, and should that occur by a small amount for short periods of time, no big deal. But if temperatures are 10 degrees above summer design temp, installed cooling systems may become partially or completely ineffective. Really critical infrastructure like data centres, refrigerated and frozen storage facilities, grocery stores, even hospitals.

Basically, the building code of this part of the country is not structured for this weather so AC won't be particularly effective past a certain threshold. One wonders how this could strain electricity resources if there's widespread lack of awareness about this problem.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Where are all the red avatars to point-out about how ignorant the local/state leadership must be to leave critical infrastructure "unweatherized" for once-in-a-century events like this one?

I mean, contrary to my expectation, the grid has held up extraordinarily well? The various utility companies around the region clearly know what they are doing and it helps that we're part of a large interconnected grid, rather than being isolated like Texas.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I haven't seen a single source that compiles all the deaths by location, but anecdotally, the distinctions are striking. I'm seeing some reports which give a death toll in the US of about 6-12 - that's across both Washington and Oregon. However, in British Columbia, the death toll currently stands at around 134. That seems like a huge discrepancy, especially considering the combined population of Washington and Oregon is 2.3x the population of British Columbia. Anybody know where that might be coming from?

I believe there's even less AC coverage in BC than in the Seattle metro area. That said, it's still very early and deaths from this heat wave are only beginning to be measured. It usually takes months for a proper accounting.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

First official report from Multnomah County is 45 heat-related deaths from hyperthermia, which is a brutal figure given that this is from one county. There will be plenty of old housing stock in Clackamas County and Washington County without A/C as well. Also, there was a 63% increase in 911 calls for medical attention on Monday relative to normal in Multnomah County.

Since heatwaves kill many elderly people for reasons not directly attributable to hyperthermia, this is likely an undercount. I'd guess that many elderly people will die of sudden heart attacks, strokes and the like that they'd otherwise not have this week.