Ontario 2018 election

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'll second Al's remark that if the final results reflect these polls, any seat-by-seat predictions would be impossible. However, I'll say that I suspect that the OLP's vote will hold up in core Toronto to a larger degree than would be expected using a universal swing calculator. I think they'll be wiped out in outlying  amalgamated Toronto, largely to the NDP, and the NDP may win a number of seats by massive, Soviet margins there but I wouldn't be shocked if the PC's make some fluke gains in places you wouldn't expect.

My "shock" prediction is that I expect that the OLP will be wiped out in the Toronto suburbs. I don't think they'll win a single riding and, further, I think the NDP will win the lion's share of these seats, including some seats that the NDP will have no business winning. The problem with this prediction is that a 1-2% polling miss could mean the PC's will win more seats. It's hard to say what will happen but, uh, as an example, I don't think people living in Vaughn have any reason to vote for the OLP. I'd assume that Wynne's approval is below 20% there. I don't think racial/ethnic minorities in these areas, whether working class or affluent, have any reason to vote for the OLP either.

I don't think that sex education, carbon taxes, utility privatization and various woke performative acts have any appeal whatsoever to ordinary suburban types of any income bracket. I'd conjecture that throughout the Toronto suburbs, Wynne is, by far, the most despised of the three leaders and that there's plenty of people who would preference both Ford and Horwath higher than Wynne. That may even be most voters. If true, the OLP will totally collapse and "strategic voting" won't matter anywhere in the suburbs.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Of course we don't know entirely or exactly what the Ford effect (if any) will be particularly - for good or ill he's not his brother.

In my mind, there's too much of an emphasis on Ford's peculiarities. At the end of the day, it seems that most Ontario voters would prefer him to Wynne. If this holds in the suburbs, the PC's could win plenty of seats, including seats where Ford is seen as a dog turd. They may only need 35-40% in quite a few ridings! That's not difficult to pull off - it's a matter of the PC's holding onto their core vote in a lot of ridings while winning some swing voters. This ain't impossible - Vaughn and a few other places seem to be filled with right-wing Liberals who voted for the Tories, even in 2015, and also for the OLP.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume. 

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I agree with @King of Kensington.  The NDP vote is inefficient.  NDP will rack up huge majorities in certain ridings (Hamilton, North), but will lose rural ridings by a large margin, and many urban ridings by a small margin.  The voting intentions shift to the NDP is simply not enough to overcome the PCs structural advantage.  Nor is every Liberal voter willing to go to the NDP, as many analysts wrongly assume.  

As for TO, NDP should be sincerely hoping that the Liberals do get at least 5-7 seats, otherwise they will go to the PCs, due to vote splitting, as imho the NDP have no capacity to win in places like Willowdale, Don Valley West or Etobicoke Lakeshore.

I don't know where the NDP/PC difference should be for an NDP majority, but I am guessing that it should be closer to 10-12%.  We are still far away from that.  Even an NDP minority government would have NDP at least 5% ahead of PCs.

In Canadian politics, there's no such thing as a "structural advantage" because there aren't many core supporters of parties. I wouldn't count out the NDP winning Willowdale or Etobicoke Lakeshore. The latter is very unlikely, the former is somewhat unlikely but it's far from impossible - Wynne is about as unpopular of a figure as I've ever seen in my time following politics. When this happens, you don't start rambling about "structural advantages".

The structural advantage I am referring to is the lock the PCs have on rural ridings. Even if Doug Ford "shoots someone on the street", to borrow liberally from Mr. Trump, PCs would still win ridings like Parry Sound, Leeds Granville or Elgin Middlesex. And more importantly, because they are rural, these wins come with a low overall voter impact and on their ability to stay competitive elsewhere. Unlike them, NDP needs a lot of votes to win seats in Hamilton or London, creating a vote "deficit" elsewhere.

The other structural advantage PCs have (at least vis-a-vis the NDP) is that they are the main alternative to the Liberals in many suburban ridings. That is why an NDP breakthrough in the Ottawa suburbs, or the York region is more wishful thinking than reality, at least at current poll numbers!

1. It's Ontario - there aren't many ridings that any party has a lock on. Coalitions constantly change. Horwath and the NDP currently have very broad appeal. Polling suggests that they have significant appeal with swing/centrist voters. They even appear to have appeal with conservatives. Polling also suggests that the OLP is winning roughly 0 of voters in either category. That's a recipe for the NDP sweeping areas in unexpected ways - contrary to what you'd expect, left-liberals and "progressives" are not driving the movement towards the NDP.
2. Citing Trump in any capacity when making the arguments you are making is foolish, even if it's in passing - even in the United States, it's possible for supposed "structural advantages" to evaporate and we're talking about Ontario, a province where in three consecutive elections, three different parties landslided the competition in late 80s to mid 90s. When coalitions change, they tend to do so in dramatic ways.

To be more blunt, you're using historical evidence to make claims about a reality where the OLP is about as popular as AIDs and the NDP is polling near 40%. This is bizarre. You cannot talk about "structural advantages" when we don't see a structure and a party has surged by 15 percentage points! That makes no sense!

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I mean no offense by this but some of you should consider restraining yourselves from posting ill-advised hot takes. The PC's are polling 5-7% higher than their 2014 result at the provincial level. The NDP are polling nearly 20% higher than their 2014 result at the provinicial level. If you're questioning the NDP's ability to hold onto Parkdale or Trinity-Spadina, you're questioning whether they'll crack 30%. If you think that the PC's could surge in both ridings, you're wondering whether the PC's will come close to 45%. This is wildly inconsistent with polling.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I mean no offense by this but some of you should consider restraining yourselves from posting ill-advised hot takes. The PC's are polling 5-7% higher than their 2014 result at the provincial level. The NDP are polling nearly 20% higher than their 2014 result at the provinicial level. If you're questioning the NDP's ability to hold onto Parkdale or Trinity-Spadina, you're questioning whether they'll crack 30%. If you think that the PC's could surge in both ridings, you're wondering whether the PC's will come close to 45%. This is wildly inconsistent with polling.

One thing you have to realize, though: just because we're commenting on PC sign presence doesn't mean we're predicting they'll win.  Just that they'll outperform expectations.

And really: when you're a hardcore psephologist like many of us are, even the "losing" numbers in each riding and polling station are meaningful, whether as barometers or cultural/social indicators or guidelines for future campaigns, etc.  So it's a little more "involved", and subtle, than a matter of "ill-advised hot takes".

I agree that results are meaningful but I don't think that counting yard signs and overreacting to these yard sign counts is a wise choice, even if it's amusing. I think information can be obtained from yard signs, particularly in Canada, but I think you have to know what to look for.

I'll add that if those LIUNA polls are accurate that the PC's are set to win over 45% of the vote. Perhaps this is possible but I doubt this...