Ontario 2018 election

[DL]

but just like the left in other parts of the world, the NDP's base is becoming more and more higher educated while the working class is becoming more and more attracted to right wing populism.

It is certainly true that the Liberal base is now very much the highly educated. The Ontario NDP still wins a good chunk of working class votes that the Liberals can no longer access at all...that is how they win in places like Hamilton and Niagara Falls etc...

[King of Kensington]

Hamilton-Niagara and Windsor-Essex are sort of like the Labour strongholds of Northern England for the NDP in some respects (as much as they can be in a country with much more volatile voting patterns!) Even if Ford is able to increase the vote, it won't amount to much (just as Theresa May's appeal to Leave voters and increased support among C2s and DEs didn't result in bedrock Labour seats going Tory).

[Hatman 🍁]

They're also polling Humber River-Black Creek (née York West), which will be a giant crap shoot too.

The Campaign Research poll of TO ridings actually put the PCs in the lead there!  Small sample size though.

Much earlier in this thread I suggested it was quite possible for the PCs to win there and in York South-Weston due to how well Ford did in those ridings in the mayoral election. Of course the state of the race is much different now, but I think it's possible for the PCs to win both still.

Interestingly I would expect riding polls to under count the PCs and the NDP in both ridings.

[DL]

I have a hypothesis that the geography of PC support will be less "Ford Nation" and more the PCs doing well where they traditionally do well when they get strong support across the province. I think Ford has been a disappointment during the campaign and the coalition of low income multiethnic people who supported his brother en masse are starting to realize that Doug is not Rob and that in fact he is very much a traditional Tory

[King of Kensington]

Leaving aside Etobicoke North where Doug is actually on the ballot, I think of Scarborough-Agincourt as the "first to fall" among seats in Toronto to the PCs, as it is both "Ford Nation" enough and Conservative enough (and the NDP has no chance).

[PeteB]

I have a hypothesis that the geography of PC support will be less "Ford Nation" and more the PCs doing well where they traditionally do well when they get strong support across the province. I think Ford has been a disappointment during the campaign and the coalition of low income multiethnic people who supported his brother en masse are starting to realize that Doug is not Rob and that in fact he is very much a traditional Tory

I am somewhat sceptical of this view. The "coalition of low income multiethnic people" are hearing what they want to hear from Ford - less taxes, lower Hydro rates, help with daycare, less government intervention into their social habits, cheap beer . Keep in mind that a lot of this demographic is socially very conservative and many have experiences that cause them not to trust politicians at all. From their point of view, Ford is at least promising them something.

[lilTommy]

Leaving aside Etobicoke North where Doug is actually on the ballot, I think of Scarborough-Agincourt as the "first to fall" among seats in Toronto to the PCs, as it is both "Ford Nation" enough and Conservative enough (and the NDP has no chance).

York Centre as well, falls into the both Ford Nation and Conservative enough.

[DL]

Keep in mind that a lot of this demographic is socially very conservative and many have experiences that cause them not to trust politicians at all. From their point of view, Ford is at least promising them something.

Socially conservative voters may also be dismayed at how Ford has positioned himself as the "vice" candidate. He seems to want more gambling, more drinking, more drugs...just waiting for him to propose a red light district so all his "incel" followers can get some sex too. A friend who is married to a Muslim woman told me that at his in-laws mosque, people are getting turned off of Ford because oif all this

[King of Kensington]

Much earlier in this thread I suggested it was quite possible for the PCs to win there and in York South-Weston due to how well Ford did in those ridings in the mayoral election. Of course the state of the race is much different now, but I think it's possible for the PCs to win both still.

Should note they had the NDP dominating in York South-Weston. YSW and HRBC aren't that different.  That's why I put little stock in these (they also put Mitzie Hunter at 0% and the Greens at 16% in Etobicoke North!)

[King of Kensington]

My feeling is that while the PC vote will increase significantly in York South and Humber, the PC universe is too small to put them over the top.  In contrast, getting around 40% in most Scarborough ridings (enough to win) doesn't seem insurmountable for the PCs with Ford leading them.

[PeteB]

Keep in mind that a lot of this demographic is socially very conservative and many have experiences that cause them not to trust politicians at all. From their point of view, Ford is at least promising them something.

Socially conservative voters may also be dismayed at how Ford has positioned himself as the "vice" candidate. He seems to want more gambling, more drinking, more drugs...just waiting for him to propose a red light district so all his "incel" followers can get some sex too. A friend who is married to a Muslim woman told me that at his in-laws mosque, people are getting turned off of Ford because oif all this

The more educated ones perhaps.  And they would probably live in the urban ridings.  In the suburban and rural ridings, it's a different story.

Imagine an uneducated Somali immigrant family (no particular reason to pick Somalis other than the fact that I have actually met a very similar family), who is coping with their transition to Canada and who have had to work hard for everything (plenty of those in Ford's own Etobicoke North riding).  They are finding the political system hard to understand and to them, rightly or wrongly, all politicians are crooks, and everyone is taking advantage of them (which unfortunately is true in many cases). 

They don't understand or believe in the NDP messages of a social safety net, free dental care or government run services because they have had poor or no experiences with most of these. 

Ford, on the other hand, is promising them more money in their wallet, to do as they please.  They may or may not believe him but, from their point of view, what do they have to lose! 

They may have issues about Ford's colorful promiscuous babbling, but it pales in comparison to the sex ed curriculum for their children, supported by the Liberals and NDP, which many of them don't understand or accept.

Whom do you think they will vote for?

[PeteB]

My feeling is that while the PC vote will increase significantly in York South and Humber, the PC universe is too small to put them over the top.  In contrast, getting around 40% in most Scarborough ridings (enough to win) doesn't seem insurmountable for the PCs with Ford leading them.

On that note, in the supposedly "NDP safe" riding of Parkdale-High Park (my own turf), there is an inordinate amount of PC lawn signs on private properties.  In the western (more affluent) part of the riding, they absolutely dominate the landscape.  While I doubt that the PCs have a chance, it does indicate that the PCs will  significantly increase their usual 15-20% share.

[King of Kensington]

If the PCs won 110 seats, Parkdale-High Park wouldn't be one of them.

[King of Kensington]

In Spadina-Fort York, Han Dong and the PC candidate Iris Yu have more lawn signs up in the heavily Chinese area between Dundas and Queen, Spadina and Manning.

I still think the NDP prevails.

[mileslunn]

Anybody know what the turnout was in advanced polls as that might be the first hint.  Also not sure if Hatman can share this, but I believe Frank Graves on twitter was saying their polls included those who said they already voted and the PCs were ahead so wondering what the numbers are like of those who have already voted if this can be shared.

[ON Progressive]

Anybody know what the turnout was in advanced polls as that might be the first hint.  Also not sure if Hatman can share this, but I believe Frank Graves on twitter was saying their polls included those who said they already voted and the PCs were ahead so wondering what the numbers are like of those who have already voted if this can be shared.

Makes a lot of sense the PCs are ahead in advance polling. Advance polling seems like it would be something older voters are more likely to do than younger voters.

[mileslunn]

They'll be posting some more NDP-friendly ridings today including:

Ottawa Centre
Spadina-Fort York
Niagara Falls
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kitchener Centre
Humber River-Black Creek
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Mississauga-Streetsville (WHY? Should be a safe PC seat)

Whatever they show for Spadina-Fort York you can throw in the garbage, as who in that riding even owns a landline?

Maggi hinted last night that his riding polling yesterday was convincing him of a PC majority. Does this mean the NDP is trailing in these ridings? These should all be going NDP except maybe TBSN.

PCs probably ahead in Mississauga-Streetsville, but NDP in everything else.  I think Kitchener Centre and Niagara Falls were winneable for the PCs at the beginning, but at this point I think any chance of picking up either has gone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Historically the PCs always had a large working class vote: the Big Blue Machine was very much founded on 'class collaboration', in much the same manner as the federal Liberals of the same era. The NDP's core was working class however defined (and definition is always a big issue regarding this issue) but they never dominated. The Liberals were also always the preferred party of Catholics of whatever class (overt sectarianism being the other key element to the Big Blue Machine), which presented further problems for the NDP in certain proletarian districts. Even in 1990 the absolute dominance of the NDP in most working class ridings owed much to the favourable split between the Liberal and PC votes. Avoid the big talk and look at the facts, as unfashionable as that is in these times...

[King of Kensington]

If Ontario politics became more like BC politics, I could see Ajax-Pickering, some of Mississauga and of course Brampton being NDP.  But being even competitive with the PCs in 905 seems to be an insurmountable challenge for the NDP at the moment.

[King of Kensington]

Historically the PCs always had a large working class vote: the Big Blue Machine was very much founded on 'class collaboration', in much the same manner as the federal Liberals of the same era. The NDP's core was working class however defined (and definition is always a big issue regarding this issue) but they never dominated. The Liberals were also always the preferred party of Catholics of whatever class (overt sectarianism being the other key element to the Big Blue Machine), which presented further problems for the NDP in certain proletarian districts. Even in 1990 the absolute dominance of the NDP in most working class ridings owed much to the favourable split between the Liberal and PC votes. Avoid the big talk and look at the facts, as unfashionable as that is in these times...

Yes, the NDP has never been the party of the working class in Ontario/Canada, just of certain pockets with a history of class politics and industrial trade unionism.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I mean no offense by this but some of you should consider restraining yourselves from posting ill-advised hot takes. The PC's are polling 5-7% higher than their 2014 result at the provincial level. The NDP are polling nearly 20% higher than their 2014 result at the provinicial level. If you're questioning the NDP's ability to hold onto Parkdale or Trinity-Spadina, you're questioning whether they'll crack 30%. If you think that the PC's could surge in both ridings, you're wondering whether the PC's will come close to 45%. This is wildly inconsistent with polling.

[mileslunn]

Anybody else see Mainstreet's riding polls?  Not going to say where, but PCs are ahead and strong second in two ridings you wouldn't think.  Also NDP it seems so far is having lots of strong seconds but not yet pulling ahead where it needs to so maybe Quito Maggi's blog last night is onto something.  Off course that assumes riding polls are accurate and that assumes numbers don't change.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP is still doing well in Liberal ridings but not so good in PC ridings.

And if you're talking about the riding I think you are Miles, then it's not that surprising if you read my hot takes today.

[Hifly]

Is there a reason people are refusing to post the results of these famed riding polls on this thread?
This isn't a difficult request; it would be helpful for us without access to see what you are talking about.

[ON Progressive]

Is there a reason people are refusing to post the results of these famed riding polls on this thread?
This isn't a difficult request; it would be helpful for us without access to see what you are talking about.

Mainstreet revokes subscriptions if you leak results out.