States most likely to flip to the Republicans?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Indiana - Duh, do I even need to explain this one? It's an economically depressed, rust belt state that is prone to large swings. Romney is a poor candidate for Indiana but he's still guaranteed to win it. I'm not even going to talk about the other candidates' chances because they're all pygmies who aren't worth my time. Obama shouldn't waste his time contesting Indiana.

Ohio - Obama is doomed here, any weaknesses that he had here in 2008 will be magnified greatly in 2012. The only bright spot is that Romney is, yet again, a poor candidate for Ohio that will struggle to appeal to working class swing voters. Every metro area besides Columbus should swing against Obama in a big way.

North Carolina - Regardless of the state's rapid demographic shift towards the Democrats and solid block of Obama voters, it's likely to flip. Don't be surprised if it gives Obama a higher percentage of the vote than Ohio or even Pennsylvania. The economy here is stronger, and Obama's 2008 coalition is his sweet spot: African-Americans and highly educated white moderates/liberals. These are the pillars of Obama's coalition that have held up the best and that hold him in the highest regard.

New Hampshire - Romney is the perfect candidate for this state and Obama has lost most of his appeal with the quintessential NH swing voter. Against Perry, this state wouldn't even be in play but luckily for the GOP, Romney is a slam dunk here.

Pennsylvania - This state will surprise all and be extremely close thanks to the economic turmoil and discontent with Obama among the white working class. In the end, I have a hard time seeing it flip thanks to a strong turnout machine but things are looking poor for Obama here. It's always been a weak spot for him and will continue to be one. Romney is not an ideal candidate but would perform well in Philly's suburbs.

Something like that and yes I'm sticking with my idea that Pennsylvania is more likely to flip than Florida. Obama can run on saving Medicare in Florida and as long as Romney doesn't have Rubio as a VP, I can conceivably see Obama improving his position with Cubans. I think the Obama campaign is astute enough to copy Stephen Harper and whore himself out to immigrant communities for votes. Iowa's economy is strong, everything that I've said in regards to North Carolina applies doubly to Virginia at this point, Obama can run on saving the auto companies in Michigan, Colorado's character as a state is also shifting rapidly like Virginia/North Carolina etc.

Anyone want to dispute my ideas? Have at them.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?

Not against Obama, they aren't. I could conceivably see Romney overperforming in the Philly burbs and still holding down Pennsyltucky by the virtue that he isn't Obama. In otherwords, following the Toomey model makes sense. Although I'd expect Romney to do better in Fayette, Greene and Washington County. Obama's approval ratings there are horrendous, even compared to his weak election result.