The Home Stretch

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

ID-1: Minnick is going to curb stomp Labrador by 10 to 12 points. There's Labrador signs up everywhere but they won't translate to votes. It just shows that my region, being an exurban/rich enclave, is a bastion of the tea party. Minnick's brutal ad against Labrador on immigration is all that he needs and with no effective response from Labrador, he'll cruise to re-election. The only problem is that there is absolutely no Democratic enthusiasm for Minnick. I don't think the "surprise wave" argument works here. Labrador is the worst possible candidate for northern Idaho, besides my area. He's ethnic, suburban, Mormon(big negative among evangelicals, not sure if they know/care though) and is from the Sali wing of Idaho Republicans. Ward might have been a dolt but he was a folksy, white dolt who was an empty suit.

Idaho Governor: Otter will win by 58-42 or so. Otter's popularity isn't as high as it could be and Allred is a fairly strong candidate. This race should turn out like every Idaho gubernatorial race over the past 10 years. Maybe if Allred ran in 2006, he could have won. While Brady was a moderate, Allred is conservative.