Ukraine Crisis

[RogueBeaver]

Oh sh**t: Russian troops trying to disarm a Ukrainian brigade. Obama about to make another statement, probably empty.

[RogueBeaver]

Ukrainian defence ministry says Russian troops will attack at 0500 local.

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Putin has "asked" the Duma for an AUMF in Crimea.

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And no one will do a damn thing.

[RogueBeaver]

Resolution is ambiguous: mentions "Ukrainian territory (in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea) ... I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalisation of the socio-political situation in the that country."

CBG in the Black Sea? Or a couple of SSNs?

[RogueBeaver]

Wonder if Putin invades all of Eastern Ukraine or most of Ukraine before pulling back and securing puppet state a la Georgia.

Federation Council unanimously approved AUMF.

[RogueBeaver]

Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt: Russian military intervention a violation of international law.

Insert a certain Stalin paraphrase.

[RogueBeaver]

UK and Canada have recalled their ambassadors in Moscow for consultations, Canada's suspended its G8 preparations.

[RogueBeaver]

Completely agreed.

[RogueBeaver]

Putin is scary...

Vladmir Putin doesn't care about international law or the national sovereignty of other countres.

He does what he does simply because he can. And because he thinks he'll get away with it.

Quoted for truth.

[RogueBeaver]

Kerry talking about economic sanctions and reversion to the G7 but twice says no military options are being considered.

That Kaliningrad idea sounds fantastic. EU should approve that ASAP.

[RogueBeaver]

The lease is basically in perpetuity, and even Putin isn't pretending it's about the base.

[RogueBeaver]

Weird how Merkel hasn't said anything publicly. Are there any pending NATO applications? Those should be approved ASAP. Brzezinski also outlined an excellent plan on Zakaria's show which is very similar to that FP piece I posted earlier.

[RogueBeaver]

FT reporting that no military contingencies were discussed at the NATO meeting, which was not held under Article 4.

[RogueBeaver]

Merkel has apparently convinced Putin to allow an OSCE "fact-finding" mission to Crimea.

[RogueBeaver]

Ukrainian unit overrun at Belbek airport.

[RogueBeaver]

Black Sea Fleet has told the Crimean Ukrainian forces to surrender by 0300 GMT or face a "storm."

[RogueBeaver]

Ukrainians say they got a similar ultimatum 2 days ago.

[RogueBeaver]

UK isn't closing financial centres to Russians or curbing trade with them.

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Turkey: we won't let this become a TUR-RU issue.

[RogueBeaver]

Russian UN Ambassador says that Yanukovych has written to Putin asking him to use military force in Ukraine. Could be disinformatsiya, but puppets are puppets.

[RogueBeaver]

Russian media outlet with unconfirmed report of what ag said earlier: Yanukovych dead of a heart attack in Rostov. TIME's Shuster reports Ukrainians are telling him Russian APCs are SAM-equipped.

[RogueBeaver]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

The Germans don't want Russia expelled from the G7+1, so I highly doubt WTO would be on anyone's list. Merkel and (unintentionally) Cameron have already made it clear the toughest economic options are out.

[RogueBeaver]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

Would be much easier to remove restrictions on oil exports from the US. Will have a lot more effect.

Plus natural gas, but that would mean a different US energy policy.

[RogueBeaver]

Re UK econ sanctions: Cameron doesn't want to drain the City of Russian money.