Quebec 2014 - another election that never was

[RogueBeaver]

Given the numerous leaks of recent weeks, I figured a thread might as well be started. (Credit to lilTommy for the layout) The minority PQ government of Premier Pauline Marois, barely a year in office, is increasingly likely to call a snap election for Dec. 9 or 16. The National Assembly would be dissolved after provincewide municipal elections scheduled for Nov. 4. PQ is gearing up for a possible campaign, with campaign offices rented, candidate nominations set to begin shortly, and everyone primed for a green light. PQ is tied with the Liberals in the polls, but detailed breakdowns suggest a jump-ball minority of either party - more likely the PQ, given their advantages among Francophone and rural voters, plus the very strong pro-incumbent trend of recent years. The PQ has come under fire for their highly controversial Charter of Quebec Values and poor economic performance, while corruption issues have dogged the Liberals consistently for several years.

National Assembly standings:

PQ: 54
PLQ: 48
CAQ: 18
QS: 2
IND: 1
VAC: 2

[RogueBeaver]

What conventional wisdom? Nothing I'm reading in the French papers. As for the premiers, they take the CAQ's position. Marois wants flash polarization in the doughnut and certain rural areas. Granted this is from 2 weeks ago, but look at the intensity gap: in Montreal RMR 31% "completely agree" to 13% "completely disagreeing", while rural areas support it 2-1, with a 38/14 intensity gap in favour.

[RogueBeaver]

I can see your argument, but the final decision will be whether they think there's a good enough shot of winning a majority. Waiting till later could mean an economic ballot question when less than 100 net new jobs have been created over the past year. We need some new polling: last CROP had a 35/30/18 spread, from mid-September. If an election were held today I'd guess a PQ minority based on the reasons mentioned earlier. Plus the PLQ has more corruption clouds over their head with UPAC and CAQ's bad polls/Duscheneau libel suit. All in all I'd say slightly better than even odds.

The PQ's reasoning, cribbed from the JdM:

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My guess is that the opposition parties would fight on the economy as usual, especially the PLQ given their inherent disadvantage in identity fights.

[RogueBeaver]

Last polls suggested a jump-ball minority of either party, which isn't anywhere near good enough, as you said. Can only wait a few weeks and find out.

[RogueBeaver]

On another subject, Radio-Canada reporting that PKP hasn't ruled out entering politics. Things could be arranged if need be, even with the base. Not now, not immediately, but maybe. He did reconcile with them a decade ago but wasn't ready to join in those days. If he ran it would be as an economic spokesman to boost the party there. One of the core elements of this rumour is that he'd be Marois' dauphin. Michel David also discussed it in his column, as did Hebert in hers. David says that he could be parachuted into the Cabinet from outside, for which there is precedent. Bouchard brought in Legault in the '90s and Levesque brought in union leader Francine Lalonde, who was thumped by Bourassa in the by-election.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed 100% w/this.

[RogueBeaver]

Public school graduation rates continue dropping: now down to 63% provincewide, 75% for Anglo public schools and 62% for Francophones. On Montreal Island that number is 46%. Now that's what I call a 5-alarm fire, politically speaking. Private school rate is 87%, FWIW.

New Leger is out. Some highlights: PQ leads 41-26-19 among Francophone voters, PLQ leads 41-30 in Montreal RMR and 42-28 in Quebec City, PQ leads 39-30 in ROQ. For the charter, topline is 46/41 approve but 53/33 among Francophones and 52/34 in ROQ. 45% say the economy's the same, 41% say it's deteriorated. TCTC projects that as 60-58-5-2, detailed projections here.

More from the Journal on why Marois wants to go now, ballot question and polls aside: retirements, worry that a full CAQ collapse would benefit the Liberals, and not wanting to blow their window like Charest did.

[RogueBeaver]

Why are the Francophone public schools' grad rates so shockingly low? (My French reading skills aren't quite up to snuff)

It varies across the province. For instance one of the Quebec City boards has a 75% graduation rate, a major Montreal Anglo board 75%. I misquoted a bit: two of the Montreal boards have a 46% rate, not the island as a whole. The numbers are improving a bit but only if you extend it to those who take 6-7 years to graduate instead of the usual 5. Then there's 65% of girls graduating on time and 50% of boys. Overall the number's declined 1% in the past 2 years, so while not awful still going in the wrong direction.

[urlhttp://www.mels.gouv.qc.ca/en/dossiers-majeurs/student-retention-and-student-success/action-stategy-on-student-retention-and-student-success/a-rising-success-rate/]Here's an old Ministry of Education report [/url] - their projections about graduation rates were incorrectly optimistic (predicted 75% in 2010, in reality 63.5% in 2011), but they do mention some groups in need of help. 30% of boys drop out, 20% of girls, 35% disadvantaged and 40% of immigrants. All those numbers are provincewide from 2010. I don't expect those numbers have changed. As for solutions... I haven't seen any. Certainly throwing more money won't do it.

[RogueBeaver]

From 2008: Alberta 68%, Ontario 70%, 75% nationally. So we're only a bit behind Alberta and Ontario. No reason why we can't pass them.

Meanwhile the top-rated public and private schools are mostly French.

[RogueBeaver]

Which doesn't solve the problem, as we all know. As for QC itself, I have yet to hear anything new from either major party on the subject of public education. Or any other subject really.

[RogueBeaver]

Population numbers? At any rate, the graduation rates are moving very slowly in the right direction. I don't think the root causes are different.

[RogueBeaver]

A bunch of Pelquistes don't want to retire despite Couillard's pressure to do so and allow younger people to step up. Not that our politicians have ever been particularly youthful. Most notably Henri-Francois Gautrin (Verdun, 70, 1989), Yvon Marcoux (72, Vaudreuil, 1998) Pierre Marsan (Robert-Baldwin, 1994, 65, he of the pay-to-place daycare scheme), Lawrence Bergman (NDG, 73, 1994) and a few other older gents. I think only those in their late 60s or older should be severely pressured. They're also running some deputies defeated last year.

[RogueBeaver]

Jean-Paul Diamond, the PLQ MNA for Maskinonge, will retire. Legault's staying.

BQ and PQ will campaign together.

PLQ has named Daniel Johnson as campaign chair, and they held a special caucus meeting over the weekend. Cabinet will be discussing a vote this week. After all, we're likely somewhere between D-16 and D-14.

[RogueBeaver]

Loi 99 will definitely be a campaign issue. Also, a very BFD: FTQ (our largest labour federation) is prepping a coup against Arsenault. QS wants the PQ to table the charter now. Agreed w/David here.
Meanwhile Payette is sort of ranting here about Catholicism, "la noirceur", feminism and assimilation of Muslim immigrants. Could almost play a drinking game. Very strong "strike your chains" crap too.

[RogueBeaver]

Cabinet will be meeting Friday to make the final decision.

[RogueBeaver]

Jean-Paul Diamond, the PLQ MNA for Maskinonge, will retire. Legault's staying.

BQ and PQ will campaign together.

PLQ has named Daniel Johnson as campaign chair, and they held a special caucus meeting over the weekend. Cabinet will be discussing a vote this week. After all, we're likely somewhere between D-16 and D-14.

Is Daniel Johnson related to, well, Daniel Johnson ?

Yeah, Daniel Johnson fils and his brother Pierre-Marc are the sons of Daniel Johnson père. That family's been on all sides of Quebec politics.

[RogueBeaver]

New CROP: PLQ 38, PQ 34, CAQ 15, QS 8. PQ leads Francophones 41-26 again but only leads in ROQ 41-33. Jump-ball either way, I'd guess another PQ minority. Since dissatisfaction is 62/35, those numbers would need to move for any shot at a majority. As it is a complete tossup. CAQ seems to be collapsing, QS bleeding too. Yet paradoxically charter support is 50/41 and Marois is ahead of Couillard as preferred premier.

[RogueBeaver]

We're almost entirely in agreement. PQ and CAQ numbers almost identical to '08, interestingly enough.

[RogueBeaver]

Updated the thread title because Lisee, Gendron and Marois herself are now unwinding a bit. Final decision will be this weekend. If there's a no I'll still keep the thread, because still likely the opposition finds an excuse next year.

[RogueBeaver]

308 projects the last CROP as 63 PQ, 59 PLQ, 2 QS and 1 CAQ (). Superb analysis on timing from Lessard.

[RogueBeaver]

RDI reporting that the PQ is preparing nomination meetings.

[RogueBeaver]

They claim future election because "the government can fall at any time", but 48 nominations in a 2-week period that just happens to coincide with the dissolution window? I had forgotten that Charest had put out pro forma denials in '08 too...

[RogueBeaver]

PQ is still divided on whether to go or not. They think Legault would not be the turkey voting for Xmas and thereby support their spring budget.

[RogueBeaver]

Cabinet retreat has begun, it'll be today and tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

So Cloutier is the only open dove. Gendron and Lisée are coy, a reversal from their dovish stance earlier this week.