AR Congressional Races 2014

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor's getting joined in the primary by St. Rep. Bobby Tullis and a Some Dude. Alas, Tullis won't get any traction.

[RogueBeaver]

Cotton will be having a campaign dinner in his hometown of Dardanelle on Tuesday, where he's going to reveal his political plans.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr will be making an announcement today. Either he says publicly he's moving back to Mansfield (his hometown, in the 4th) or jumps the gun.

[RogueBeaver]

AP reporting Cotton will announce for Senate.

[RogueBeaver]

Maybe now PPP will finally poll here. I'm curious to see how Pryor responds to Cotton's entry. Probably safe to imagine it involves more Bubba.

[RogueBeaver]

He did save her in the primary, not so much the general.

First domino topples: Westerman will run in the 4th. Darr will let it be known he's running later today, but I assume neither will publicly jump the gun.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor's campaign responds with not hopscotch, but Cotton's voting record. Weird tack for an R+14 state.

[RogueBeaver]

Cook has moved this Senate race from Leans D to Tossup. Sabato already had it at Tossup before today.

[RogueBeaver]

St. Sen. Bruce Maloch (D) will not run in the 4th.

[RogueBeaver]

Darr said he's back in the 4th and will announce within 2-3 weeks, but the interview was done before Cotton leaked his news this morning. So Darr can move that timetable up if he wants. Jerry can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd peg Westerman as the favorite in the 4th.

[RogueBeaver]

Westerman's a slam dunk, Darr would be pulled in by PVI. Rankin would be very weak but she'll probably place last in the primary.

Tolbert points out that all the primary action will be on the Pub side, plus there might be more Pub than Dem primary voters next year depending on turnout.

Boozman's hoping for an issues-based campaign.

[RogueBeaver]

Wow: Pryor personally doubled down on voting records. "He's more interesting in placating some national conservative, hard-right interests. In 7 short months he's managed to alienate farmers, women students... I think that there will be a very clear difference between Mr. Cotton and myself." 

[RogueBeaver]

Ark Times got their hands on a Dem poll which has Pryor 43, Cotton 35, 21 undecided. Would definitely like a real poll, though Pryor's # matching his approval rating seems plausible.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep. In fact that poll almost exactly mirrors Pryor's approvals in February of 42/35/23. Of course Pryor should have much higher name ID than Cotton, so this looks to me like Pryor's bumping his head on a ceiling.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep, CD4 is the state's swing region. Pubs need to at least break even here plus do well in most other parts of the state, like 2010. Cotton essentially tracked Romney's performance, so we'll see just how swingy it is. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of Blue Dog Dems in that district split their tickets between Ross and Cotton though. More interesting maps for Miles at any rate.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's the Clinton article. He praises Clinton's skills and sincerity but also said Clinton never had a strong opponent in his entire career and most of his gubernatorial agenda was focus-grouped Permanent Campaigning. None of which is inaccurate.

I don't know why the MSM is making a big deal out of this: you can find everything he ever wrote for the Crimson with a quick Google. I looked through it 2 weeks ago: he was just as severely conservative then as now.

[RogueBeaver]

Meanwhile in 2013, Pryor's sticking to voting records.

[RogueBeaver]

If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

[RogueBeaver]

If Pryor wants to continue deep-diving on votes, then he's setting himself up on Obamacare, guns, and just about everything else on the WH's agenda. Not that I'm complaining.

He didn't vote for the final health care bill. So he could do his moderate hero. And for guns, yes, he can be hurt I guess.

That's what Blanche Lincoln did, voted for the 2009 bill but against the 2010 one.

[RogueBeaver]

Pryor gave an interview to AP which is completely incoherent. He thinks Cotton's primary motivation is anti-Obama, and said "I hope Arkansas doesn't waste one of its Senate seats just to send someone to Washington to oppose a president for two years." In the same breath: "The other thing is if you look at the president's policies, he just doesn't offer a lot to states like Arkansas,"  "He doesn't offer a lot to rural America. I've encouraged the White House to remember rural America and remember small -town America. They just don't have a lot of policies that are geared toward middle America."

Needless to say Pryor voted for all those policies and last year voted with Obama and Reid 91% of the time. I told Miles earlier this week that I thought Pryor had either decided to run on his record, figuring he might as well defend it instead of mealymouth like Romney or hiding like Lincoln- and/or that his famous "IQ test" quote was entirely self-referential.

Pryor on Obamacare just 2 months ago: "I think it was the right vote. I think it was good for Arkansas."

[RogueBeaver]

Tmth: Just wait for the debates.

[RogueBeaver]

I read on Kos that there are rumors of the DSCC considering intervention in Pryor's campaign by replacing his campaign staff with their own people. Have you heard that, Jerry? To me it seems quite plausible if a bit premature. For instance, Pryor doesn't even have a proper website up- only a splash page. He should definitely ditch the media handlers after yesterday's interview though.

[RogueBeaver]

Reports that a "progressive redneck" Dem with Clinton ties is being recruited for the 4th. Beebe was decidedly unenthusiastic "That's his business" about Halter in the 2nd, but then again he's never been a Halter fan and all but endorsed Ross in the primary.

[RogueBeaver]

Turns out that poll was conducted by AFSCME. Even better: 55% of respondents said they were more likely to vote against someone who supported Obamacare. Imagine what a PPP/TB poll would say both on this and toplines...

[RogueBeaver]

Or TB. Rankin says "No decision right now. You know I love the Fourth Congressional District, so I'm seriously and prayerfully considering it." She'll run and place third in the primary.

Looking at 2010, PPP didn't poll until Boozman formally declared in January- their one and only poll since she was terminal at 56/33. This time I suspect PPP will stick around.