Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Robert Benzie on Twitter: Dwight Duncan will resign his seat next week. Windsor-Tecumseh now opens up. Will Dippers try and grab it?

[RogueBeaver]

Bob Rae is retiring this summer, apparently Smitherman wants to take a shot in TO Centre.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/02/07/john-ivison-bob-rae-will-retire-this-summer/

[RogueBeaver]

Bentley is resigning next week.

[RogueBeaver]

Who would the Grits run in Toronto Centre? Only name I've heard mentioned is Smitherman, and I don't think any of the McGuintyites should be hoisted into Parliament. Kennedy is probably returning to provincial politics.

[RogueBeaver]

The Ontario Grits will lose Windsor West without Pupatello, but she's probably not running. There are more retirements to come next week.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/02/08/sandra_pupatello_gives_liberals_best_hope_of_holding_dwight_duncans_windsor_seat_poll_finds.html

[RogueBeaver]

Another federal retirement watch I forgot: Coderre in Bourassa. He said he'd vacate the seat once the leadership is over.

[RogueBeaver]

Provincial stuff a jump ball. TO Centre Liberal hold.

[RogueBeaver]

Penashue resigning from Cabinet and his seat due to the campaign finance scandal, will run again. Anytime between May 6 and October 31 but no mention of date in PMO press release.

[RogueBeaver]

I wouldn't bet on it. Todd Russell will decide in the next few days. Yvonne Jones is also thinking about running.

[RogueBeaver]

For Grits and Tories too.

[RogueBeaver]

Jones is running.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2013/03/15/nl-peter-penashue-political-reaction-315.html

[RogueBeaver]

NDP nomination meeting for Labrador will be held this Sunday. Candidates are Mike Goosney and Harry Borlase. Dippers, you ever heard of these guys? I suspect that Jones will be the Grit nominee, would she and Russell really run against each other?

[RogueBeaver]

Greens aren't running a Labrador candidate in the interest of coop. Only got 130 votes last time, so no BFD.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/03/23/the-greens-stand-down-in-labrador/

[RogueBeaver]

The whole idea is silly, but Murray won't be leader 3 weeks from tomorrow.

[RogueBeaver]

Borlase has been nominated as the Dipper candidate in Labrador. When will the Grits have their nomination meeting? Harper can't call it till Friday earliest, probably waits till after Easter.

[RogueBeaver]

Only 106 Dippers voted in that nomination and the party won't release the breakdown. Russell will announce on local CBC radio tomorrow morning whether he'll run, but as I said earlier doubtful he does. Surely Jones phoned him before immediately jumping in.

As for the by-election itself I'd put money on a Liberal win for now. Cue the "Grits scalp Harper minister" headlines.

[RogueBeaver]

Teddy saying on Twitter that the Dippers will be taking Tory votes.

[RogueBeaver]

Russell isn't running, but he won't endorse Jones or get involved either.

[RogueBeaver]

Labrador has been called for May 13.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/04/07/nl-byelection-labrador-407.html?cmp=rss&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[RogueBeaver]

Because it was probably part of a deal with Elections Canada and the PM. It'll get drowned out by Dixquake the following day anyways, which is why Harper picked that date.

[RogueBeaver]

Penashue is a student at the Duplessist porkbarrelling school.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2013/04/penashue-says-he-withheld-approval-for-nfld-project-to-secure-labrador-highway-funds.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[RogueBeaver]

I'm not a constituent of his, nor am I under any illusions about the gap between the party's theory and practice.

[RogueBeaver]

Back to Labrador: Dunderdale said Penashue's statement was "unacceptable, bad politics, and if any of my ministers did that they'd lose their jobs." BOOM.

[RogueBeaver]

Wha? Harper and Dunderdale have a good relationship- she publicly endorsed him 2 years ago.

[RogueBeaver]

New Abacus Labrador poll: LPC 63, CPC 20, NDP 17.