Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd has the support of enough crossbenchers to win an NCM. He'll be designated and sworn in within 2-3 days, I'd expect. If an August 24 date then dissolution in a couple of weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

The GG is apparently consulting constitutional experts about what to do next... would she commission Rudd straight-up or require some written documentation of crossbench support before administering the oath?

[RogueBeaver]

The GG will commission Rudd, but he'll have to announce his appointment on the House floor to test crossbench support. He'll be at Yarralumla at 9:30 AM local time. Presumably we'll get an election date soon enough too?

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd does want an August election, no surprise.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd will take the oath in 2 hours.

[RogueBeaver]

A) Overnight poll B) Morgan C) Honeymoon. Rudd hasn't changed. 457s are still on the agenda, BTW.

[RogueBeaver]

As a backbencher maybe, but definitely not as leader.

[RogueBeaver]

One manifesto change: carbon tax replaced by an ETS... which was the original plan anyways. Speeding up the timetable will apparently increase the deficit, per an ALP friend of mine. It'll be Abbott's file since full repeal tops his agenda.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd will announce his new Cabinet in a couple of hours.

[RogueBeaver]

Turns out it'll be a policy announcement, not the new Cabinet. ETS?

[RogueBeaver]

NBN?

National Broadcasting Network.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd extends the Gonski deadline by 2 weeks. Howard will return to the campaign trail starting tomorrow with the Victorian kickoff.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd offers an SSM referendum if Abbott doesn't allow a conscience vote, but he's rebuffed by activists.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd is promoting a lot of women into Cabinet, not all of them from his camp. Also thinking of bringing Abbott with him to the G20, when not saying his would-be travel partner would cause a shooting war with Indonesia.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd will be rewarding some of his friends. Plus his Achilles heel: voters don't believe he's changed. Which he hasn't- that's how Abbott pops the bubble. Finally there's pressure on Rudd to clean up NSW as Dastyari heads to the Senate.

[RogueBeaver]

Tally Room won't be there this time.

[RogueBeaver]

Fraser acting, well, Fraserish by campaigning with the Greens against a Coalition Senate.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd is placing the NSW party under direct federal control, giving Dastyari full power to clean it up-  starting with a new executive. Meanwhile there's a Cabinet debate about the election date, some want August, Rudd wants October/November. Date to be announced today.

[RogueBeaver]

Is there a source for the election discussion... I don't doubt that the Cabinet is divided, most people are divided.

But I'd be surprised if he announced at the same time as going to Indonesia for serious talks on a high-profile issue.

All they said is "expected to be announced today" so I assume background. On one hand, does he want to repeat Gillard's mistake by announcing well before dissolution? On the other, what you said-weird to announce an early election just before leaving on a major diplomatic trip.


Gillard and Swan were apparently in good cheer at the after party. Money quote: "sh**t happens."

[RogueBeaver]

Long Abbott interview.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd being urged by party elders to go further on internal reform, including dilution of union representation. Bowen even wants direct leadership elections, though I doubt that happens anytime soon on either side.

[RogueBeaver]

It's actually a pretty decent ad... considering the last 3 years has been dominated by angst and negativity, it's pretty calming and balanced. The fact that it's not exactly based on fact won't really hurt it.

In other news, Rudd apparently met PK at his office today. Can only wonder what advice was given. Also wonder which side, if any, he took in the psychodrama.

[RogueBeaver]

Looking at the polls it seems that even given how unpopular Gillard was, Abbot was not able to get a consistent lead over Gillard on the question of who is better PM.  Now that Rudd is back it seems that Abbot is losing by a mile.  It is most likely too late but did not the fact that Abbot was not able to win in 2010 and given the fact that Abbot was not that much more popular than Gillard despite ongoing Labor civil war mean that the Liberals should have thought about dumping Abbot and replacing him with someone more likely to be more popular.  Or were the Liberals sure they would run against Gillard so it does not matter.

Oh come on.

[RogueBeaver]

There's also the Howard/Beazley '07 precedent- Abbott could trail in PPM for a while but still lead in 2PP. As for vision, that's partly the partywide post-WC scare to run as Generic Liberal... to my knowledge no one's seriously proposed revisiting said decision.

[RogueBeaver]

There's also the Howard/Beazley '07 precedent- Abbott could trail in PPM for a while but still lead in 2PP. As for vision, that's partly the partywide post-WC scare to run as Generic Liberal... to my knowledge no one's seriously proposed revisiting said decision.

The problem with that theory is that Rudd took over from Beazley almost a year before the 2007 election, we don't actually know then, which way the PPM would have ended up had Beazley stayed on.

And... that's not a vision.

Re vision: that's my point. Boldness has gone.